Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Hummingbird Comm. (HUMC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (1759)	10/28/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: John Chatterton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2018

It seems to me the P/E is more like 8 right now. The last four quarters' earnings add up to 1.86, essentially flat from the preceding four quarters. This flatness, on the heels of their first quarter with negative earnings growth last spring, is causing the doldrums in the stock. Zacks predicts next year's earnings of 2.14, suggesting an earnings growth rate of 15% from 98 to 99, with earnings the following year of 2.80, suggesting an earnings growth rate of 35% from 99 to '00. But these numbers merely reflect the guesswork of the chaps at Hummingbird, who have no better idea than we do whether they can make the transition to Business Intelligence from X Windows. (Well, maybe a better idea, but they're biased.) For me, it's still worth a shot. I've dumped a couple of stocks in the low single digits that I paid in the teens for, when I realized there was no hope. (There was no hope because they didn't make a transition from the connectivity business to something else.) Here I think there's still hope, based on my respect for the people at Hummingbird, and at these multiples I'm holding on. (Though I'll probably unload some at the first sign of an uptick.) How do other people feel about these Zacks numbers? Have they been updated recently? Do they mean anything?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (1759)	10/28/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: Tom W.	Respond to of 2018

The price/earnings ratio has been low for quite some time now. One seemingly insurmountable problem is the number of shares that are short (over 3 million with an incredibly high ratio of 74 days to cover at current daily share volumes). Hummingbird stated that they have strategies that they are using to try and oust the shorts but the only one I can see is the share buyback program. Announcing a dividend would probably help - they have lots of cash and a lack of direction on what to do with it. Another problem is the new direction into the Business Intelligence. Forecasting future earnings growth on this is probably done using a dart board. Martin stated that he would probably buy back in at the $18.00 CAD level. I have a feeling that this is where this stock is headed. Hummingbird is definitely in transition. Whether they will be successful or not will take quite some time to ascertain. Tom W.

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (1759)	10/28/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: nokomis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2018

David - your second last paragraph, IMO, is accurate. Like many on this thread, including the wise Martin G., we know this is a solid company; however, and I speak only for myself - there is more action elsewhere in the next 12 mos. to recoup some losses and, hopefully, do better overall. If I were looking at HUM today, I would indeed buy at these levels. But having been burned (or run out of patience), some of us have chosen to move on. This is not to say HUM will disappoint those who choose to jump in now, and have an investment horizon of 12-18 mos. I truly believe this company will deliver in the end, but I have lost too much sleep waiting for it to happen....all the best, NOK