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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9257)	10/28/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: William JH	Respond to of 22640

In case this hasn't been posted before - Brazil is allowing foreign access to its oil exploration at a specific site, effectively ending, after 45 years, their carefully protected monoply over their oil. biz.yahoo.com

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9257)	10/28/1998 10:24:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil telcoms recommended as best bets in a slump Reuters, Wednesday, October 28, 1998 at 22:02 By Ian Simpson NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Brazilian telephone companies are best bets for investors amid the slump likely to follow the introduction of a $23.5 billion austerity package announced by the government on Wednesday, analysts and investors said. Overall, Brazil remained a key investment target in Latin America, they said. Even so, Argentina and Mexico were relatively more attractive, in part because of their stability. "We've been favoring Mexico and Argentina," said Federico Laffan, a Latin American portfolio manager at Warburg Pincus. "We feel they are lower-risk, lower-return type situations, but the downside is capped" compared with Brazil. Julie Wang, a portfolio manager at Bankers Trust, said most Brazilian companies would suffer amid an economic downturn that is expected next year. "That doesn't make for a buoyant stock market," she said. "So we're still cautious toward Brazil." The package announced Wednesday contains tax increases, spending cuts and other measures designed to close a budget deficit of more than 7 percent of gross domestic product and protect the world's No. 8 economy from turmoil that has ravaged emerging economies worldwide. The program also will set the stage for a possible $30 billion financial package from the International Monetary Fund and other lenders. The Brazilian government forecast that under the program, the economy would grow 0.5 percent this year and shrink by 1 percent in 1999. Laffan and other analysts said telecommunications stocks were attractive because they offered potentially strong earnings in a recession. Brazil has a big backlog of customers wanting telephones. "We're predisposed to telecoms, especially fixed-line companies," Laffan said. Jane Heap, Latin American equity strategist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said blue-chip electric utilities in Brazil also were possible investment targets. "Markets are clearly going to remain volatile," she said. "I would shun retail, for example, white goods, anything that is going to be hurt by a slowdown." Heap recommended selling into a market surge caused by an IMF package. A senior Brazilian Finance Ministry official said talks with the IMF about the package could be finished within a month. She and other analysts said it was crucial for Brazil to trim its deficit to bring down interest rates, now at 40 percent a year. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9257)	10/28/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil social security '99 savings seen $8.3 bln Reuters, Wednesday, October 28, 1998 at 22:24 BRASILIA, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Brazil's fiscal austerity plan should produce total savings of 9.87 billion reais ($8.29 billion) in the social security sector, Social Security Minister Waldeck Ornellas said Wednesday. "Our contribution to the fiscal adjustment is 9.87 billion reais," Ornellas told reporters. Of this, 3.75 billion reais would come from the social security system for private sector workers, known as the INSS, and 6.12 billion reais from the public sector, he said. The savings would come from a combination of raising social security contributions, cutting the social security deficits of the private and public sectors and implementing new laws to prevent social security fraud, the minister said. The government earlier announced a program of budget cuts, tax increases and other measures aimed at saving $23.5 billion in 1999 and restoring investor confidence in Brazil's battered economy. The program includes a rise in social security contributions for civil servants whose earnings exceed a certain level and the introduction of pension contributions for retired public sector workers. The government also plans to introduce a general law introducing limits on the amount state companies can spend on pension payments, among other items. Ornellas said he expected Congress to resume voting on three remaining amendments of a long-awaited social security reform as early as next Wednesday. "The international crisis has shown how right the government was all along," he said. "If this reform had been approved three years ago, probably the country would not be going through the problems...it is now." joelle.diderich@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service