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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (67491)	10/28/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Tenchusatsu - Re: " what were the number of Pentium II units shipped per speed grade in Q3? What are the estimated numbers for Q4?" Sorry, Ten , but I haven't seen Intel's Q3 production reports ! Re: " If the majority of processors sold in the first half of 1999 include Katmai New Instructions, that would mean that Intel could easily dwarf the number of 3D-Now! processors " The 3DNOW shipments to date are probably on the order of 3 Million - since AMD has been shipping a mix of K6 and K6-2s. Assuming that all 4.5 million ( ??!!) in Q498 are K6-2/3DNOW as well as 5 million each in Q199 and Q299, that would put the total at 17 million 3DNOWs by July 1, 1999. In Q1 and Q299, Intel could possibly ship 47 to 50 million TOTAL CPUs. Thus, they would need 34% of their cumulative H2 production to be Katmai CPUS to catch up with AMD's 3DNOW by July 1, 1999. I would be surprised if Intel's ramp was that fast. I would guess that they would target for 20% by July 1, 1999 - which could be 9 or 10 million Katmais. There is a possible scenario for Intel to catch up, however. That possibility may be the gradual - followed by accelerating - DROP IN K6-2 demand once it is perceived as INCOMPATIBLE with the NEW INDUSTRY STANDARD - Katmai New Instructions. Dropping K6-2 sales will enable the Katmai to overtake AMD's 3DNOW while maintaining a workable RAMP UP for Katmai devices. I suspect that Q299 will be a difficult time for AMD as Intel turns up the MARKETING on KNI and AMD finds itself in a position trying to defend its aging and inferior 3DNOW instructions. AMD will also be faced with rising costs as they bring on the Sharpy chip which is much larger than the the K6-2 and will have to be sold at a discount since it does not have Katmai New Instructions. Paul