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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (23484)	10/29/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: damniseedemons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Sorry Glenn, I really can't say much more than I've already said (which was just basic observations--in no way to be taken as investment advice!). I am not allowed to share proprietary information, including the economic model(s) and analysis I have. >>I have heard this line too from the sell side analysts. Please tell me how they are terrific.>> Hmm, maybe that's because Amazon's team really is terrific? I know when I met them I was blown away--Bezos is great, but I was extremely impressed with all the other folks throughout the company. And just for the sake of a reference point, you should know that very few people impress me. -Sal PS. Btw, Mary Meeker doesn't strike me as an evil stock manipulator (and even if she wanted to be, she does not have that much power). And aside from being a very good [sell-side] analyst (note that I think many of them aren't so good), I also think she's one of the wittiest people I've even known!

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (23484)	10/29/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Please post some numbers. Anything logical that you wish. That would simulate profitability for AMZN in whatever year you choose. Let's assume that marketing expense as a percentage of sales will reduce. However, you nor I know how much is marketing and how much is fulfillment expenses. An example would be nice before you state to GW that he would be better off learning more about this. Where is the inflection point? Inquiring minds. Glenn- That's a tough one. On the same side of unknowns, do you have any devil's advocate ideas about how Amazon could surprise you after a couple or few years and become not only profitable, but dearly so? If anyone could come up with a feasible scenario, I'd guess it might be you. Maybe you've tried already, as an exercise to test your bearish position...? I guess one scenario which is most likely is that they continue with their recent success at garnering the trust of many internet users, continue acquiring new users as customers, continue expanding their product offerings, and eventually put in place some higher margin lines. If they get that big (how big is big? $10B in revenues?), they may have built a web-place where all kinds of services and products are offered (travel, hardware, software, music, books, calendar, videos (possibly w/ electronic delivery further in the future), clothing (hypothetical -- "Gap signs deal to sell jeans at Amazon"), etc. That doesn't point the way to profitability, just more revenues. It'll take some high margin sales to bring the black. No quantitative analysis here, just some thoughts. Any examples from history of companies which have gotten huge (as measured by revenues) without turning a profit? How long can they last? If they 'crash and burn' as many bears predict, what will become of what could conceivably become $2B in revenue for FY00, or $4B in FY01? I realize that growth may seem unlikely, but it appears feasible by a small stretch... Randy