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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (9929)	10/29/1998 6:21:00 PM
From: Phil Jacobson	Respond to of 29382

Hi Sergio! Market's looking pretty good isn't it. Just like old times. Back into a lot of old positions and doing well with almost all. SAVLY's one of them; I had sold at 15, then picked up more than I ever had before at 11 3/4. At 17 it's a big YEEEHA! there. As I've said many times before the company is rock solid and offers one of the best sets of convergent billing solutions for telephony that's available today. The big downturn for SAVLY really taught me a lot about them and their business. Even though they run a great company their stock price got hammered in part because they do a lot of work with the CLEC industry which is having great problems getting capital to expand (as we all know the high yield market is still comatose and all but the largest CLECs rely on debt financing). It also got hit because of rumors of problems with the latest software releases. The releases are now done and there's no sign of problems. Their conference call was excellent - profitability is net 20%, 40-50% gross, sales forecasted to continue at current rates (35% per year?). Biggest issue is companies are taking longer to make their capital investment decisions which spreads the revenue and income into subsequent quarters. But they're moving strongly into a second line of business - acting as a billing service bureau for companies that would rather "rent" than buy a software license and have to do the billing themselves. This is great because it opens up the opportunity to work with a lot more companies that have cash flow but limits on capital. So, I'm pretty bullish on SAVLY and will hold. If the capital markets open up again for small and mid-ize companies I'd expect the stock to do extremely well. OK, now for IRIDF...I used to really believe in this stuff but now I wouldn't take a chance on it. Honestly, I don't think the demand will be there given the high cost of the phone itself and the related service ($3/ minute?). There may be a big demand spike at first as all the early adopters get their phones, but after that, who knows. I wish them well, just a little too skeptical to buy the stock. The best thing I did when the market started going up this time was buy a lot of CSCO, AOL, and DELL. Got AOL at 88, now at 128 only a few weeks later! What a market. Got a bunch of APCO back after dumping most of it at around 6. Man I'm just not playing that stock well at all. Phil