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Technology Stocks : Altera -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charlie Smith who wrote (1910)	10/29/1998 2:52:00 AM
From: Stu	Respond to of 2389

>I'm betting that both ALTR and XLNX will stay within their trading ranges for two more quarters. Then you're betting that their respective businesses will not improve for a full year because the stocks will begin to move 6 months ahead of the industry. What I think you meant when you said that the businesses won't improve is that sales won't improve. I don't think that sales will show the 20%-30% growth that these companies have had in the past for another two quarters. I see these stocks reacting at the end of that quarter or the quarter after that. I do not see these stocks pricing 6 months in advance. The earnings picture is just too uncertain. When these stocks reprice, they will do so very quickly. They will break out into new ranges within two or three weeks. Maybe less. And they will do so only on concrete news or earnings. I agree with you that Wall Street is pleased that ALTR and XLNX are staying afloat rather than sinking, but I do not think that Wall Street will necessarily reward the stock of either company until it sees 20%-30% growth. Till then, I will continue to trade them up and down the range.