Strategic Alert DRC:
Rand, it is probable that the political scene in Angola and DRC are the reason for the trading activity.
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
October 29, 1998
Angolan Rebels May Target U.S. Interests in New Offensive
According to a "duly identified and generally reliable source"
cited by the Angolan newspaper "Actual," Angola's UNITA rebels
have completed preparations for a major offensive to be carried
out in Bengo, Uige, and Cabinda provinces. Among the areas UNITA
reportedly plans to seize are Ambriz District and the area around
Libongos, from which the rebels can bombard Luanda with medium-
range missiles. The source said that preparations for the
offensive had been completed under the leadership of Portuguese,
South African, and Iraqi "experts," and that fractures within
UNITA have led UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi to rely in large part
on mercenaries from Rwanda, Uganda, South Africa, Namibia, Libya,
and Iraq. Moreover, as Savimbi reportedly feels that the United
States has "betrayed" him, he is reportedly mulling a
"preemptive" strike against U.S. interests in Malongo, in the
Cabinda enclave. As of October 28, UNITA had succeeded in taking
three towns in Uije and Malanje provinces, reportedly facing
little or no resistance.
The U.S. has effectively severed ties with UNITA. In an October
23 letter to Congress, President Bill Clinton outlined the steps
he has taken to isolate UNITA. These include an embargo on arms
transfers and petroleum sales to UNITA, an embargo on the
transfer of aircraft and aircraft parts to UNITA, a blockade of
flights to or from UNITA-controlled territory, and on August 18
of this year, the freezing of UNITA assets in the United States.
Russia, one of three official observers of the Angolan peace
process with the U.S. and Portugal, has imposed similar sanctions
on UNITA, as has the UN. All three observer countries severed
contacts with Savimbi in August.
On October 28, a delegation of top U.S. African affairs officials
arrived in Angola to discuss the peace process in Angola and the
neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The
delegation includes Under Secretary of State for African Affairs
Susan Rice, who went on record last month tacitly supporting
intervention in the DRC, as "The DRC should not be used as a
haven for UNITA, Interahamwe, and others to destabilize Uganda,
Rwanda, and Angola."
Under Secretary Rice, National Security Council Director for
Africa Gayle Smith, and special envoy Howard Wolpe are scheduled
to meet with Angolan Foreign Minister Venancio de Moura, though
they have no plans of meeting with UNITA representatives. The
delegation will, however, reportedly meet with a group of UNITA
dissidents who recently split from the group. Luanda has cut off
all contact with Savimbi and is negotiating with the UNITA
dissidents as if they represented the group, a clearly futile
diplomatic gesture, which the U.S. is apparently choosing to
support.
The war in northern Angola, which never really ended despite the
1994 Lusaka Peace Accord, is heating up rapidly. The conflict
was accelerated by the war in the DRC, where UNITA assisted the
rebels and the Angolan government intervened on behalf of the
Kabila regime in order to prevent the reestablishment of a pro-
UNITA regime. Mobutu Sese Seko, the former leader of the DRC,
then known as Zaire, allowed UNITA to use Zaire as a rear area
for logistics. Several factors threaten to make the latest
escalation in fighting more severe than at any time since 1994.
First, the deep split within UNITA means that Savimbi must fight
not only to defeat the Luanda government, but to maintian the
support of his own army.
Second, UNITA no longer enjoys a major national sponsor.
"Actual" newspaper's source alleged that South African officials
have substantial business ties with UNITA, which precluded South
African intervention in the DRC. However, South African support
for UNITA appears to be limited to business relations and turning
a blind eye to mercenary involvement in Angola. The increased
role of mercenaries is another factor which may fuel this phase
of Angola's ongoing war, as are possible links to Uganda, Rwanda,
Libya, Iraq, and other countries. These links not only represent
the continued spread of Africa's now nearly continental war, but
with Iraqi involvement, draw the U.S. further into Africa's
conflicts. Finally, the targeting of U.S. interests, and
particularly of oil interests in the Cabinda enclave, means this
latest fighting threatens a substantial international economic
impact as well.
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