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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (23630)	10/29/1998 7:41:00 AM
From: MrLuckyman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<<<As a long in amzn and other internet stocks, I'm finding the pattern this quarter a little disconcerting. In past quarters, the typical pattern was a runup up to earnings, most stocks hitting all-time highs, then a dramatic selloff after earnings and all the news was out. Then a repeat the following quarter. This time around, international events got in the way, so we had an "abnormal" correction mid-quarter after the Russian news, followed by an "abnormal" recovery after AG's second rate cut, and now "unnatural" quiet after what most consider to be excellent reports from bellwhethers yhoo and aol. With the possible exceptions of yhoo and ebay, new highs from here do not look likely for most internet stocks this cycle. Likewise, AG's support of the economy in the form of future interest rate cuts provides support on the downside. Thus, I expect the post-earnings correction for internet stocks this quarter to be less dramatic than normal. Which also means that I benefit less by selling now to take advantage of internet stocks' cyclical volatility. Which means that I will likely hold up to next quarter's reports and yawn now that the internuts are behaving more like "normal stocks....>>> The existence of the specialist's Investment and Omnibus Accounts is ultimately detrimental to the public. "In a stock with only a small capitalization or floating supply, the segregation of large blocks into long-term investment accounts for the specialist further decreases the supply of the stock available to the public" (1Ney, 61) The specialist has absolute control over price. He can match the buys with the sells in any way he sees fit. He can raise the price of the stock 3 points in three trades, and open the next day down 5. The seeming unpredictability of stock prices is due to the fact that prices exist at the whim of the specialist. A stock is only worth what the specialist is willing to pay for it at the moment. The fluctuations you see are, in fact, the evidence of how the specialist is working out his inventory problems to meet his short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term goals (2Ney, 172). The specialist will sometimes 'leap frog' his prices up or down, creating a gap. This is done to keep a group of investors from buying or selling at a particular price. 'Leap Frogs' show specialist intent. NEWS AND FINANCIAL REPORTING It is highly unlikely that we will see news reports critical of U.S. stock exchanges, or of the specialist system. There is a simple reason for this. All news organiztions are corporations and do but reflect their management's views. Corporations that own media have specialists influencing the choice of management. Newspapers, magazines, and television are but extensions of the corporate world. When Richard Ney's first book, The Wall Street Jungle, came out it was on the New York Times best seller list for 11 months. Yet the New York Times would not review it. The Wall Street Journal refused to take an ad from a New York bookstore that featured The Wall Street Jungle (2Ney, 30). All three of the major networks were wary of having Ney appear. NBC banned only two people from appearing on the Tonight show with Johnny Carson: Ralph Nader and Richard Ney. Not only do large banks, brokerage firms, and corporations advertise on television, they also are the largest stock holders (2Ney, 33- 34).

To: Robert Rose who wrote (23630)	10/29/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Bogus in the sense that some of it was at the cost of increased dilution and large expenditures (Europe) that cannot be sustained over time. However, as I've posted a few times, I think the momentum will continue at least into this quarter - maybe even pick up nicely due to the seasonality factor. I agree that the sector looks ready for profit taking and at least a modest pull-back. I think the extent of the pull-back will have a lot to do with how much the market corrects. I have also observed the history of "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" prior to earnings releases. However, the TA shows that we have not had quite the high level of euphoric enthusiasm seen prior to releases in the past and we may get a delayed reaction. Let's face it, the brokerage and investment banking industry has been hurting recently because of exposure to foreign markets and internal losses. The Internet darlings are one of the few bright spots the pimps can cling to. And you can bet they will ride what ever momentum they can. I agree that only eBay, Yahoo and possibly AOL are likely to see new highs. eBay may be near a point at which it will pull back but there is not much history and too little float to draw that conclusion. The recent upgrade and 100 price target helped the move up. If the history of similar stocks has anything to do with it, EBAY will tend to crap out before it reaches that 12 month target - maybe 83-86 will be the sell point?