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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (67529)10/29/1998 9:19:00 AM
From: greenspirit  Respond to of 186894
 
Morning Mary, Article...The Chip Evolution -- The industry's top semiconductor experts gather to discuss new strategies...

October 29, 1998

VARBUSINESS : System assemblers need to know where their business partners are going regarding strategies and time frames of new products. Enter the Microprocessor Forum, which took place earlier this month.

The fall conference has become one of the microprocessor industry's most eminent technical gatherings. The three-day forum, held at the Fairmont Hotel in San Jose, brought together high-level industry executives and technology enthusiasts to discuss the various products and strategies of the major chip manufacturers, and to highlight new trends in the microprocessor community.

People such as Walter Fry attend to stay abreast of new trends in processor technology. Fry is a senior member of the technical staff at Compaq Computer Corp.'s Portable Advance Architecture and Portable PC Division. He can learn a great deal from executives at Intel Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Corp. (AMD), Cyrix Corp., IDT's Centaur Technology and Rise Technology Co. as they present their product road maps.

Michael Slater, founder and principal analyst for MicroDesign Resources, hosted the forum. Slater, an internationally recognized authority on microprocessor technology, started the event with a seminar entitled "Processors for PCs: Players, Technologies and Prospects." Backed by his technical know-how, Slater offered his opinions on the chip makers' technologies and strategies during the past year, and critiqued their plans moving into the new millennium. Topics included the shifting PC environment, Intel's x86 competitors, RISC microprocessors, comparing microprocessors, sizing up Intel's competition and future trends.

On the second day of the forum, the microprocessor manufacturers announced their latest technology advancements. Leading the way in new processor trends is Intel. The colossal microprocessor maker started the portion of the forum called "Microprocessors for PCs." Here's a look at the five chip makers' latest offerings in microprocessor technology:

Intel's Katmai

Intel led the portion of the forum called "Microprocessors for PCs."

Katmai's new instructions and architecture will be implemented in three out of four processor market segments in the first quarter of next year. The market segments include mid- to high-end servers and workstations, entry-level servers and workstations (performance desktops), and mobile PCs. The Basic PC desktop will continue to use the Celeron processor without the new Katmai instructions.

Building on the launch of Intel's MMX technology found in the Pentium II and Pentium II Xeon processors, Katmai processors will now include a memory-streaming architecture that will rapidly feed data-hungry, rich media applications, according to Srinivas Raman, architecture manager for Intel. New media instructions will enable faster speech processing.

Additionally, a concurrent SIMD-FP architecture will offer two modes: one enabling users to perform scientific and engineering combinations and the second enables users to perform 3D combinations at a higher level of performance.

"Concurrent SIMD-FP is the biggest thrust of the new Katmai instructions, " Raman says.

It should be, since AMD beat Intel to the punch in advancements of core designs for 3D applications. This year marks the first time a vendor other than Intel has led the evolution of an instruction set: AMD has implemented its 3DNow! instruction set in its AMD-K6-2 processor.

AMD's K-7

AMD believes now is the time to launch the company's seventh generation processor, K-7. The K-7 is a "ground-up new design" that will start at operating frequencies of 500 MHz using 0.25-micron technology, says Dirk Meyer, director of engineering for the AMD-K-7 design team, based in Austin, Texas. The smaller micron technology enables increased processor core frequencies and reduced power consumption.

The chip will incorporate a 200-MHz bus (originally designed for the Alpha EV6 bus) and a high-speed backside L2 cache controller. The K-7 will provide a scalable multiprocessing architecture, enabling the company to compete for the first time in the workstation and server markets. Since the summer, AMD executives have been saying the company will abandon Socket 7 architecture with the K-7. They were true to their word.

The K-7 will be available on a daughter card that will be mechanically compatible with the slot 1 infrastructure. The chip will be launched in the first half of next year.

PC-On-A-Chip

National Semiconductor Corp.'s plan for Cyrix is to compete where market leader Intel is weak. So, the company will focus on high-performance cores for high-integration products, entry-level PCs and information appliances. That's where the company's PC-on-a-Chip, a MediaGX-based processor, fits in. The MediaGX incorporates a 5-x-86 core with added functions, such as a 64-bit-wide DRAM controller, a PCI-bus interface and a unified memory display controller. The processor reduces system cost by eliminating the graphics controller, the north bridge and provides a separate frame buffer.

The PC-On-A-Chip will include south bridge functions, super-I/O, modem and DVD support. The chip will initially be offered in a 0.25-micron process technology; however, an MXi-based version is expected to follow in a 0.18-micron technology by 2000.

Continually condensing the packaging does not always condense costs. Some of the technology included in generic packaging may provide functions that aren't necessary to every user. It may be a cheaper way to manufacture the product, however, the company can charge users more money for features many may not use. "The higher the integration level, the more opportunities there are to do the wrong thing, or become obsolete," argues Slater.

Additionally, Slater believes information appliances only provides a small near-term market.

Centaur/IDT

Glenn Henry, founder of Centaur Technology, Austin, Texas, is focusing on cost by staying with the Socket 7 architecture. "We have the world's lowest-cost microprocessor," he says.

However, he suggests the company may run into trouble if it does not significantly improve its clock speeds. Therefore, the company's WinChip 4 incorporates a new core designed for higher megahertz.

"The WinChip 4 is designed with the philosophy that megahertz is almost everything," says Henry. By Q2 of next year, the company hopes to be shipping 400-MHz to 500-MHz versions of its WinChip 4 using 0.25 micron technology.

While adding a Level 2 cache is where competitors are going, "Our religion says it is much better to have a larger L1 cache than a smaller L1 cache with a L2 cache," Henry explains. The WinChip 4 uses a 128-KB L1 cache.

While most other chip makers are migrating toward Dynamic Execution (Out-of-Order) Execution, Centaur/IDT is sticking with In-Order Execution. "It is hardly worth getting Out-of-Order Execution," Henry claims. "The transistor power could be better spent. Out-of-Order is not very efficient for every sequence."

Rise Technology

The Microprocessor Forum gave the spotlight to a veritable newcomer-Rise Technology Co. Ken Munson, principal engineer at Rise, discussed the five-year-old company's plan to offer a low-cost and low-power x86 processor for multiple segments of the basic PC market with its mP6 processor technology. Munson could not comment on the cost or power consumption for the processor. The details will be available when the processor ships later this quarter. However, Munson did say the processor will include 16-K L1 cache, 100-MHz bus and 0.25-micron processor technology available in BGA and Super Socket 7 packaging. The next phase, the mP6II, will include an on-chip 256K L2 cache with both 0.25-micron and 0.18-micron processor technologies.

Processors For PCs

The presenters were called back to participate in a panel discussion titled "Processors For PCs" before the high-tech crowd to explain the reasons behind each of their technical strategies. Slater relentlessly fired questions at each of the engineers. Slater's knowledge of Intel and of the industry as well as his no-holds-barred tactics were evident as he presented an argument on the first day of the forum, in which he states, "Celeron is not a technology, it's a brand." He says the Celeron, what critics have labeled a crippled Pentium II, is the product of Intel's savvy marketing team. "From a technical standpoint, there's no reason why Intel can't crank out 400 MHz on a Celeron processor," says Slater. Yet the company chooses not to do so, because it would interfere with Pentium II sales, he says.

At the panel discussion, Intel's Raman refuted Slater's argument, explaining why the Katmai instruction set will not be included in the Celeron processors. Raman says the Katmai instruction set will initially role out in performance PCs only. However, Celerons will likely incorporate the technology over time, but Raman could not comment on when or why-probably because he's under a gag order from his marketing team.

Slater contends it is reasons such as those that leave OEM Intel partners up in arms. He says some OEMs are frustrated with Intel and believe the company has too strong a hold on the market, because their options are limited to Intel's product delivery. Therefore, OEMs welcome competition from other chip manufacturers. While there were only five PC processor manufacturers at the Microprocessor Forum this year, Slater suggests there may be more at next year's Microprocessor Forum-a sight OEMs would likely welcome.



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (67529)10/29/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Paul Engel  Respond to of 186894
 
Mary - Re: " I doubled up after each loss at the roullete table
when I bet on red. I did it twenty times - and each I time I eventually won. Not a very good statistical sample. "

HOUSE GAMBLING LIMITS restrict the ability of this scheme to work except for the first few "double-ups".

Snyder bailed out of Intel at $87 last week.

Paul



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (67529)10/29/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: nihil  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
RE: Doubling stakes

Martingales are trivial to imagine, and impossible to execute successfully for long.