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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FMK who wrote (4609)	10/29/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: FMK	Respond to of 27311

Revised estimates IMO 20 per minute for the high speed line for laptops may be attainable due to redesign but is so far unconfirmed. Here's another set of calculations based on laptops from line 1 and cellphone batteries for lines 2 and 3. Line 1 8k/day x 350 x $65 x .3 = $54.6 mln profit/yr line 2 16 mln/yr x $10 x .3 = $48.0 mln profit/yr line 3 16 mln/yr x $10 x .3 = $48.0 mln profit/yr totals $150 mln/yr profit once maximum production is attained. If we assume a 12 month ramp up the average is 50% of this for the year or about $75 million profit/28 mln shares = $2.70 per share. This puts it back to about $1 per share per line but more like $1.80 per line once full production is reached. A 20PE would then indicate a $54 share price, neglecting joint venture and other sources of revenue. Some say a 30PE is more appropriate for a high growth company. Again, its encouraging to come up with some support for Don Wolanchuk's $80 to $100 price target. As always, I encourage anyone to make his own assumptions and calculations.