Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25840)	10/29/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: zsteve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G, RE -- >>where did you put money to work? AMAT? << amat,nvls and mu. my god, what happened to my sweetheart lu and csco?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25840)	10/29/1998 3:33:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and Threaders, following are quotes from an interesting publication published by Tom Dorsey, Dorsey Wright, today. With the previous post I have made of Presidential Cycles, 1999 (3rd yr) and 2000 (4th year) could be very good years for the market. Just my $.02. Paul V. SUMMARY: ANOTHER BIG MOVE THIS WEEK - 1982? . . .If I didn't know it was 1998, I might think it was 1982. The rally is broadening substantially with the smaller cap universe outperforming the big caps. This is a good sign. The last two times the Bullish Percent was very washed out and reversed up from below the 30% level and it was a mid term election, the small cap's did the best. . . "MIDTERM ELECTION YEARS: WHERE BOTTOM PICKERS FIND PARADISE" STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC 1998 1-800-477-3400 EXT. 1999 One of the most books we purchase each Year is the Stock Traders Almanac. It's a Yale, Hirsch publication and worth getting each year. It's full of all kinds of market statistics and anecdotes that will actually help you become a more successful investor. It's also a great book for a client gift. To purchase a copy, call -800-477-3400 ext. 1999. It's something you will want to have it at your desk every year. I highly recommend it. Okay, lets get into the reason for this article. "American presidents have danced the quadrille over the past two centuries. After the Midterm Congressional election and the invariable sear loss by his party, the president during the next two years jiggles fiscal policies to get federal spending, disposable income and social security benefits up and interest rates and inflation down. By Election Day, he will have danced his way into the wallets and hearts of the electorate and, hopefully, will have choreographed four more years in the While House for his party." Beginning to sound familiar? "After the Inaugural Ball is over, however, we pay the piper. Practically all bear markets began and ended in the two years after presidential elections. Bottoms often occur in the air of crisis: (sound familiar?) the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, tight money in 1966, Cambodia in 1970. Watergate and Nixon's resignation in 1974, and threat of international monetary collapse in 1992. But remember, the word for "crisis" in Chinese is composed of two characters; the first, the symbol for danger and the second, opportunity. Of the 16 quadrennial cycles in the past 64 years, only three bottoms were reached in the post-presidential year. All others came in midterm years, including the six in a row prior to 1996." This all sounds pretty bullish to me. It also sound like were exactly we are. Is anyone looking for a crisis to hang their hat on? Let me count the ways. How about Russia and its Ruble which they would never devalue? Brazil is on the brink. Want a monetary crisis, how about Asia? What about President Clinton Gate, Filegate and the infinite other things surrounding his presidency? The most recent crisis was created by the Nobel Prize winners blowing up one very large hedge funds that turned out wasn't very well hedged at all. From there other hedge funds melted down as well as the capital of the banks that indiscriminately financed these hedged operations. Do we need anymore crises for this post election presidential year? Could it be that the NYSE Bullish Percent picked the exact bottom last month as it did in 1981? It is interesting to see the bottoms made in the NYSE Bullish Percent Index in relation to the crises mentioned above. -Cuban Missile Crisis 1962: Bullish Percent bottomed at 6% in May 1962 -Tight Money 1966: Bullish Percent bottomed at 8% in September 1966 -Cambodia Crisis 1970: Bullish Percent bottomed at 6% in May 1970 -Nixon Resignation: Bullish Percent bottomed at 8% September 1974 -Threat of Monetary Collapse 1992: Bullish Percent bottomed at 20% in September 1981 -Asia/Clinton/Russia/ Hedge Fund/South America/India, Pakistan Nuclear test/Kosovo Crisis as well as good old Saddam still lurking in the news; Bullish Percent bottomed at 16% in September 1998. That gives us two May's and four September's in which bottoms were made.