Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shust who wrote (31269)	10/29/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: Jamey	Respond to of 95453

OPEC Compliance: (snip) "Earlier this year Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and non-OPEC oil producer Mexico clinched two agreements calling for oil output cuts of 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in an effort to boost persistently low oil prices. OPEC President Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri said on Thursday that he was content with the OPEC supply reductions already agreed this year. ''The reductions we have agreed can be considered a good figure but we hope for better compliance from member countries,'' he told reporters before the opening of the international oil conference which is being attended by about 30 oil ministers and senior officials from producing and consuming nations. The deals aimed at trimming about four percent from world production have done little to lift prices despite OPEC's best efforts. Brent is still languishing well below the $13.80 a barrel average seen so far this year and some $6 under the average price seen in 1997. OPEC has been notorious for cheating on its self-imposed production quotas in the past but this time the deal appears to have seen better compliance. The group had acheived more than 90 percent compliance with its pledged cuts, OPEC Secretary General Rilwanu Lukman said on Wednesday in Cape Town. ''There is more than 90 percent compliance, almost 100 percent compliance,'' he told reporters. OPEC pledged to cut 2.6 million bpd with a further 500,000 bpd pledged from non-OPEC oil producers. Despite downplaying any chance of further cuts at the Cape Town conference, Saudi Arabia re-iterated its aim of higher oil prices.''Our goal is to see the price of oil going up in coordination with other producers,'' said a Saudi source on Thursday. ''The most important thing is that we act collectively to re-establish the price levels,'' said Algerian Oil minister Youcef Yousfi. ''If it is possible to reach an understanding now, why wait?'' he said, adding that he would support deeper cuts extended over a longer duration. Algeria, Kuwait and Libya have called for deeper cuts but have so far not found support from the architects of the original deals - Saudi Arabia, Venezuela or Mexico. The cuts agreed earlier this year helped boost oil Brent prices during the summer from under $12 to nearly $15. But over the past month, prices have fallen back again as stock building ahead of the winter failed to kick in. ''We need this winter to start quickly otherwise distillates are going to spoil any rally,'' said Nigel Saperia, head of the energy trading desk at Bankers Trust in London. A warm winter in the Western consuming nations might even lead to a further price drop, he added. ''The bulls are still hoping a cut will be made in November (at OPEC's meeting in Vienna) but the consensus is probably somewhere between a further cut and nothing,'' he said. A huge stock build in the United States last week dampened a tentative week long rally and winter heating oil stocks have ballooned to well above year ago levels. Prices in dollars per barrel: Oct 29 Oct 28 (1153 GMT) (close) IPE December Brent $13.09 $13.19 NYMEX December light crude $14.26 $14.29

To: shust who wrote (31269)	10/29/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Besides the hurricane we also have potential problems: - unrest in Nigeria, - Savimbi is threatening to attack US oil interests in Angola - Pakistani Muslins are stirrring up trouble along the flanks of Iran and the Gulf - some exec in Venezuela warned last night that he had been alerted to expect a coup there. One or more of the above events could take away a few barrels per day of production. Yes there has been quite a lot of discussion about the OPEC reserves. As was explained to me, any engineering done on an oil field to determine reserves will give you a range of estimates for your field: 10% chance you have 1,000 bbls 20% ... 30% chance you have 900 bbls 40% ... 50% chance you have 700 bbls 60% ... 70% ... 80% ... 90% ... 100% chance you have 150 bbls. Obviously if I am allowed to produce 2% or 3% or whatever the OPEC agreement allows, and if I need revenues to meet my grand plans, I state my reserves per the 30% level, not the 100% level and then produce accordingly. That OPEC is doing this seems to be widely understood in the oil industry.