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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (31286)	10/29/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

RGinPG...re: Stochastics I have not discounted the Stochastics being damn near on the money here. If they indicate a sell early - where the stocks run up another 10-15%; but then retrace and base about 5% or so above where they gave the initial ''sell'' signal; I'd say that's pretty damn accurate... This may be somewhat close to where we end up. I would say that when the crude fundamentals change to the positive; I would use the later/peak sale setting... With these fundamentals and this enviroment; it is more important to protect gains against the massive blow offs; versus missing a ''top.'' I'm not criticizing your short play; but we look pretty steady here; and if good OPEC news comes out - we won't go to the moon, but $2-3 pops are possible...also, another FED cut in Nov is probable. - just raises some risk versus reward questions. Selling puts for the premium or worst case; applying the premium to a lower purchase price is THE conservative play currently... Me; I'm ''light'' here - playing HLX very large & looking for some bottom fish - mainly E&P's ( good Reserve upside & Intnl Exposure in APC APA SGO & values in RRC BNO FEN MLRC) and I'm loaded in small/mid cap Savings & Loans; with a Nov. Fed Cut these could move just like the Oilpatch just did; hopefully I've caught the bottom and can exit at the top of a big move; keeping a little for longterm, but moving the $ gains back to the Oilpatch before Crude moves and playing the Sector Rotation leverage game.... this market has some great opportunities right here. Some of the small/mid cap & niche stocks are no longer ''dirt'' cheap; reasonable yes; but ultra-cheap; not. CDIS DRQ PGO CXIPY CLB moved quite a bit here without crude moving... I sold out of my techs; was big in PCMS VTSS played CIEN, CSCO LU on the blowoffs; but sold out (should of kept some CSCO LU longterm)- many of the Tech's are near - very near their prior highs in many cases; - crazy imho. There is only 20-25% potential upside to prior highs in much of the overall Tech sector; with S&L's and Oils I have opportunities to double+ ; left & right...2-3 year lows in many solid companies. People - take a look at small/mid cap S&L stocks under 1.0 X Book Value here...good long term holds and a great 6-12 month play off of Fed Cuts ! Financials without International Exposure & Oilpatch are the 2 Best Sectors imho. I'm starting to look at Steel stocks as some bottom plays; and like a couple of oddball value stocks AMFM (radio conglomerate) and HOT (Starwood Properties ) REITS - look good to me here also. Big Caps/Nifty Fifty's are too expensive. The overall market is about 4-500 points too high imho....one has to be a stock/company picker again here; as ''timing'' is virtually impossible. good luck all