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To: Tony Viola who wrote (15872)10/29/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: DanZ  Respond to of 25814
 
Tony,

I agree with your conclusion, but I would like to offer a few small corrections. The SOX set an all time high of 405.48 during the week of August 22, 1997 so it is 35.3% off its high. Also, by my calculations, the DJIA is 9.3% off its high and the Nasdaq is 13.4% off its high. The way that I calculated this is:

SOX: (405.48-262.38)/405.48 * 100% = 35.3%
DJIA: (9368-8495)/9368 * 100% = 9.3%
Nasdaq: (2028-1757)/2028 * 100% = 13.4%

The SOX has resistance between 275 and 277 and I would expect it to pull back from there at least once given the magnitude of the recent run. The Nasdaq has resistance at about 1770 which isn't much further from where it closed today.

It looks like the chip stocks are entering a new bull market. Based on previous bull runs, I think it can last 12 to 18 months and exceed the previous high in the SOX. Of course it probably won't go straight up, but I think the longs are in for better times.

Best of luck to everybody.

Dan