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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (67571)	10/30/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: nihil	Respond to of 186894

RE: Reasonable to expect a $20 trillion company? No, of course not. But nobody (not even Noyce and Moore) thought in 1968 that Intel would be a $180 billion dollar company today. If they had, they would have managed somehow to keep all of the stock rather than let the other investors in. It is unreasonable, but perhaps unreasonably low. Intel would probably not have to widen its product line,just find a few killer aps, but suppose 12 billion people bought 450 GHz Xeon III at $2,200 (why shouldn't children have workstations so they could have mommabots and really hot games), that would be $26 trillion in sales which should support $120 trillion in capitalization at a P/S of 6. After all, what is the probability of a duck?

To: Scumbria who wrote (67571)	10/30/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Badger	Respond to of 186894

Hah! I hadn't done the math to see what kind of numbers that would generate. You're right - 'reasonable' probably isn't the right word for it! It's unreasonable to expect a company the size of Intel - any company - to grow as fast in its second 26 years as it did in its' first. I do believe that Intel will be a player in the industry in 26 years - I'm just not sure what industry. Hell, I couldn't even guess what the equivalent of a CPU will be in 26 years. But I have a lot of confidence that this company can adapt itself to conditions better than most of the players, and that means it'll thrive. JMHO, of course, but I'm a long-term investor, and I do mean long-term. Heh. $20 trillion. Thanks for the chuckle. Badger