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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (2233)	10/29/1998 9:16:00 PM
From: Gwolf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

The problem with history is that you always have to view it in hindsight. I personally can't say with total conviction that we have entered a Bear market. I am 100% certain that we have not seen a Bear market bottom.What we have just witnessed was either a typical correction in an ongoing Bull market or the " shot across the bow " that signaled the first leg down in a Bear market. So far relative strength is almost back to the July top, but Investors business daily's accumulation/distribution is still rated at "D" which indicates distribution is still taking place. On balance volume for the S&P spiders is starting to decline. It does appear that the current rally is starting to get some selling into it recently. If the decline,that should start soon, doesn't pick up steam on the down side and see the new lows expand and advances/decliners accelerate then the Bear camp might be in trouble. There was a sizable correction in 1927 only to have the market reverse to the upside for the final blow off. We are overvalued but we need a catalyst to start the Bear market. Greenspan cut rates to stop the catalyst which was the eminent demise of Bank of America, Bankers Trust and Lehman Bros.. We where within a hairs breath of a melt down and Greenspan and his crash team came to the rescue. The big question is are all of the land mines out of the field, last November everybody thought the worst was over only to have the problems float to the surface again this July. It appears that the global economy has lost steam to the downside but you just never know if this is temporary. I think we are at a very interesting turning point right now. If no one steps on a land mine this market could be in for a Nikkei type blow off run for the roses, but if this global house of cards has just the right card pulled from it we could see the whole thing fall in a pile of rubbish. It doesn't matter if you are long or short, an investor needs to be on his toes like never before at this moment. Gwolf

To: Tommaso who wrote (2233)	10/30/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3339

Does the GDP and inflaction number kill the bear view..... and allow for a soft landing?? Looks good for the bull today.... Joel