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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9289)	10/30/1998 4:34:00 AM
From: Tony van Werkhooven	Respond to of 22640

Steve- re. my Jeremy Smith comment, I should have followed it with a <BG>. Tony

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9289)	10/30/1998 6:10:00 AM
From: jeremy smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

Quite correct, ol' buddy! (I have not yet resorted to freelancing for the journal - though \| guess one must keep all his options open) - and that IS indeed me being quoted very occasionally by Dow Jones. Steve, I'm not sure you ever got it, but I sent you a private msg quite a while ago explaining my absence, but I promised I'd be back with some commentary just as soon as I was remotely confident enough of what I was thinking. So, I'm still not there, but this is at least a brief snapshot of how I see things: AGAIN - PERSONAL VIEWS HERE, NOT MY FIRM'S: - Brazil will likely muddle through. - No deval YET - if one is in the works , it will come much later, and be implemented from a position of strength. ie it will be controllable. - THE STAKES ARE GETTING HIGHER EVERY DAY. There is no middle ground now. They either make it, in which case we are looking at a fantastic medium term buying opportunity, or else....well, let's not dwell on the alternatives. - The market just cannot understand why there has been no announcement yet form the IMF. WHERE IS THE MONEY? They've told us that Braz and IMF have agreed upon the fiscal targets for next 3 years - the IMF must surely have known the extent of the cuts announced by Brazil ahead of the official release....so, what are we waiting for? why are the Brazzos now saying they'll reach agreement with the IMF WITHIN ONE MONTH? ONE MONTH!!!!!!!!! - everyone there surely understands the fragility of the situation, and its total dependence on short term sentiment. they KNEW the market was expecting concrete news - and yet they give us nothing? Bothers the hell out of me! - currency outflows continue negative virtually daily. - interest rates moving higher, though i expect a dramatic fall-off in rates WHEN THE IMF COMES THROUGH. - market real anxious to know the extent to which the IMF money may be made conditional on the Fiscal cuts physically being enacted by congress. I think I've seen articles posted here that refer to that. - customer equity flows look somewhat better. Have seen dedicated (specialist) accounts buying over past few weeks - though net sellers past few days. Dealers just do not want to come out and play. Liquidity therefore is worse, and this is helping to increase the day to day volatility. - heard this week that TBR babys will not now be listed in NY until next year. So, how much longer can the SEC allow TBR to remain listed as a single security? surely not much longer. Is there a risk they could force a de-listing? The company doesn't even report a p&l anymore! Anybody out there got color on this? In short, not much bloody help, am I? a load of questions, but few answers. As I say - I think that we are entering the final stages of this ball game. I THINK that our team is gonna win, but it needs luck, and not a little help form the referee (a.k.a. the IMF et al.) - all of which of course you already knew. Steve, you'll be surprised to learn I check in with this thread virtually daily - It's more efficient for me to look here for my news, than to scroll through hours of tape on my Reuters looking for the headlines! good luck y'all! J.