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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (1509)	10/30/1998 2:01:00 AM
From: swedelo	Respond to of 1720

Mr. Horne, Concerning the glut of competitive fishing games on the market. Yes I am aware of Tiger, Playmate, and many other knock-offs. this is inevitable in this industry. It will and has hurt RADAF's overall position in the fishing game department. However RADAF has had the field to itself so-to speak for more than a year and a half and as such has name recognition. The best example of this would be just last week at Wal-Mart I was checking the toy section (as usual) when a young lady with two youngsters and a baby in arms came on the aisle and began looking at The assortment of RADAF fishing games. I asked her, after she chose the new Deep Sea Fishing model, why she chose the RADAF model over the Tiger model that actually looks like a pole and was a few dollars cheaper. Her answer was..."This is what my husband said he wanted, I wouldn't dare come home with something else."NAME RECOGNITION!" The quality of these other brand games ranges from very poor to really quite excellent, but, unfortunately for them they got in a little to late. Mr. Trinidads post on life-cycles was very timely as fishing games are indeed on their way down. This does not worry me in the least. It is exactly what I expected. But, as I stated in an earlier post, what most people are missing in their evaluation of RADAF (among other things) is their new line of "VMS" (Virtual Motion Senseing, I believe) toys. These include the combat games. They are able to detect movements in a 3-dimensional manner on movements as little as 1/2degree I believe. You really have to try them out to understand, but it is quite amazing for a $25 toy. No one else has anything like it, just like no one else had anything quite like Bass Fish'n 2 years ago. This is what I meant by "a new cycle is beginning." In their latest Conference Call the CEO commented that they were not going to advertise these toys for this Christmas season as they knew they wouldn't possibly be able to meet demand. This is what happened with Bass Fish'n last year and led to great 1st and 2nd quarter carry-over sales. I look for this line of toys to do the same, then sell huge next Christmas with some knock offs starting to show up, again to late. This is one of the main reasons I am bullish on RADAF for at least the next 18 months. Toymakers have to keep INNOVATING. And RADAF has shown me they have the ability to do this at least for a second round. Hope this answers your question. Best Wishes, Swedelo

To: ftth who wrote (1509)	11/13/1998 2:34:00 AM
From: HeyRainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1720

[ Stocks and Bonds ] You know what's interesting, is overlaying a plot of the 30-year Treasuries over the S&P 500 index. (By inverting the yield chart, I established a proxy for the price trend: if bond prices go up, yields go down, which is good for stocks. With an inverted chart of the yield compared to the S&P 500, I can see a one-to-one relationship between the prices of both stocks and bonds). The overwhelming observation is this: bond prices seem to affect the market's "ease of movement." When moving in lockstep with the market, it can act as a tailwind, propping prices as they move higher (1995 to 1996). Or when bond prices go down, it can act as a headwind, pressing against the broad market price trend, causing a choppy trading period (October 1994-October 1995), or a downright decline (January 1994). It appears to have the tendency to lead the market, and is effective as a Divergence measure. The trend in stock and bond prices in 1987 is a very good example of this phenomenon. 1990 is another example, where stock prices hit new highs, but were unconfirmed by similar highs in the bond markets. With stocks following bonds, that was not a good signal for investors. A curiosity in recent times is the divergence of stock and bond prices: as the sky was falling, prices of bonds appeared to become artificially inflated in a "flight to quality" buying binge, while stocks were plummeting to lows that eliminated the year's heady gains. As stabilization has come within viewing distance, the correction of this anomaly resulted in a snap-back to equilibrium: stocks reverted to their prior relationship with the bond price-trend by running contrary to the historical relationship between the two--this time stocks sustained an upward move, while bond prices continued to fall. Since October 6th, the bond price trend has been down, while the stock price trend has been up. What remains to be seen is how the markets will behave looking forward. How much longer can this snap-back/divergence continue before history once again takes the reins and causes stock prices to move in lockstep with bond prices? If it does so anytime soon, and if the trend in bond prices continues as it has for the near future, it may be time to look for an easing in stock prices. RT