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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Tesorero who wrote (9799)	10/30/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: oddmanout	Respond to of 11555

Hop on board...four letter semi w/o #'s til january.....the train is leaving the station.....clear signs of pc demand improvement and supply/demand ratio favorable in semi,disk drive, semi-equip rally that's started....it never pays to rationalize...neggheads on IDTI cover your short and go long like a real trader would.....TARO?

To: David Tesorero who wrote (9799)	11/3/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: Samuel R Orr	Respond to of 11555

David, I just returned from two weeks in Silicon Valley. In my talks with friends who still work there, I found unit shipments have held up well, but prices are still very low. The inventory situation has improved, though, and if Asia really pulls out without Brazil falling in, my friends see a gradual strengthening of the market. There's a lot of brick and mortar in place, and as companies move toward both smaller technology and larger wafers, production capacity increases. Toss in today's election, Russia, the Microsoft trial, and AMD's pursuit of Intel's Pentium microprocessor business, and a crystal ball might provide a more accurate estimate than a human being. As I recall, you and your wife were looking forward to something really important, and I haven't checked this thread for a long time. Any word? Best of luck, and DELL seems to be on its inexorable way up. Sam

To: David Tesorero who wrote (9799)	11/14/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Samuel R Orr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 11555

Hello David, Some rather odd events have taken place lately, and I am still looking for rational explanations for them. Perhaps the foremost should be the DELL reaction, which temporarily impacts our big bet. When its $.28 earnings were initially posted the other night, DELL fell around two bucks in after-hours trading: I guess they weren't quite good-enough for the greedy swine who move the market. If I look at DELL coldly, I see that four quarters of $.28 will provide yearly earnings of $1.12. At a $69 stock price, that would give a P/E ratio of 61.6 to one. No matter how good DELL is, its earnings won't double next year(there will be more competition, and DELL is already so big it can't increase unit sales by a factor of two), nor will it receive an average sales price for a PC of more than $2400 per unit, the figure I saw today for the past year's sales. I don't think a P/E of more than twentyfive to one is justified. That tells me its stock price should be around $28. Now the market regards me as nuts, but I think fundamentals actually mean something. Perhaps the market seems to finally have bought my logic, though DELL had an absolutely marvelous quarter and earned a penny more than Wall Street's expectations. Poor Michael Dell must wonder what in the devil he has to do! Both revenue and earnings were up more than fifty percent. In spite of that, DELL dropped over five bucks on Friday, though it's still too pricey for me at $63. With nine month earnings of $.74, their twelve month profit can't reach much more than a buck for the running year. The whole business tells me much about GREED and the dashing of irrational expectations. Money doesn't actually mean that much: look at the $850K Mr. Clinton just paid to Paula Jones out of the goodness of his heart for doing absolutely nothing to her. A federal judge had stated she'd suffered no loss and threw out the case. That's what, even many years later, a brief visit to the gubernatorial presence can do for a girl! IDTI did recover some of Thursday's loss to close the week around $6 3/4. With the Intel/AMD speed race on processor MHz, it's going to take something close to 300 MHz to get in the game. Fortunately, IDTI has numerous other products that will eventually provide good revenue, but the guys who want fast stock profits don't care about them. The Cinderella slipper fits only a fast WinChip, and all IDTI has now is the arch and heel. Recent positive information shows, from what I can judge, Asia is no longer slipping deeper into the tank, the much maligned IMF has arranged a $41B bailout for Brazil, and things are looking up. Now that the inspectors have just been allowed back into Iraq, we might not even go to war. I hope both you and I are still around to enjoy that Big Mac and Pepsi when IDTI reaches $15 5/16 or DELL $169. For the rest of you stalwarts who used to post on this thread-take heart: no news is good news. Regards, Sam