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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David A. Stern who wrote (18213)	11/1/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 69144

Hello Dave. I shorted and covered IBM & JDEC based on my market call. I wanted to take advantage of market dip but didn't want to miss the snapback rally. JDEC's thoughts: JDEC has been acting stronger relative to its peers, perhaps due to the reasons that I mentioned to Jurgen(middle-market focus). Another reason could be that earlier in the year the expectation was that JDEC's OneWorld would generate higher license revenue resulting in higher service revenue in the latter part of the year. Since the founder, Mr. Edward, still owns ~40% of the company(almost twice more than mutual funds) there is less pressure on the stock as well. As you know mutual funds tend to crush a stock on the way out. Will JDEC meet earnings estimate or will it speak of slowdown as PSFT did? I don't know. However, I don't see why they should be able to dodge the bullet. If I were playing with fantasy money, I would short it at 34 with the expectation of seeing it back in low 20s. That's where my "bias" lies. As far as YHOO, I wouldn't consider it as a fundamental short yet even though I know it is outrageously-valued. AMAZON is a fundamental short and I will short it in the coming days, but still as a trade. May do the same to YHOO. Also, most people "fundamentally" short the laggards in the group, not the money-making leaders like YHOO. My general advice to you is too stay committed to the tape and try to avoid disasters. I have been very successful by cutting my losses in a hurry. It has kept me mentally sharp and emotionally-detached to focus on the next opportunity in the making. It is quite exciting to short HPW at 80 and hear that it is trading in the 60s after the market close. Such "fundamentally-driven" shorts happen only once in a while whereas stocks swing wildly every week and should be taken advantge of. Clint