To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (25865 ) 10/30/1998 1:09:00 PM From: blake_paterson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
Justa: <<One more fun fact. What does AMAT and Greenspan have in common? They are both due to report next on November 17th. Keep it in mind. >> It will make for a very interesting day, and it has been in the forefront of my cerebral cortex since the last cut, along w/ the question: Will they (cut again)? My feel during the past 10 days had been absolutely YES. However, the economic indicators released today, along with the "good" news from the G7 ministers today, now leaves me to question whether the Fed will still find it necessary. It will require one hell of a continued liquidity problem to justify lowering rates in the face of a strong economy. OTOH, next weeks' econ. numbers will tell us more, and you could also advocate that the T-bill to commercial paper spread still justifies a cut. God help these high flying semi-equip stocks if the cut doesn't come. Regarding AMAT for the past 2 weeks, although I capitulated yesterday I still believe (cynically) that there is NO basis for this rise other than momentum initiated and manipulated by the mm's and our collective response to Mr. G. None whatsoever (as you said, don't fight w/ big Alan). Indeed a bubble scenario for this sector. CYMI, SFAM, KLAC, and AMAT still can't tell whether order upticks are anecdotal or will continue sequentially. They have no indication that the upturn is at hand. In the soup, flying on instruments. Letting people go as we speak. Doing their damndest to protect S/H equity by reducing costs while doing a fine job massaging estimates and analysts. Preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. All IMHO. Regards, BP