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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (31322)	10/30/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: diana g	Respond to of 95453

<< 'Greenspanesque trap' revisited >> I have to agree that you're right, Michael, in that these meetings are not secret and the potential consequences should be clear to anyone who's watching. Not like when Uncle Alan jumped out from behind a tree swinging that rate cut. Still, I think Slider is correct that if a spokesman for the producers makes the right statement about agreements, etc., it may be cause for a sudden surge in price, and Shorts had better cover fast. In the past, statements have sometimes come on weekends, leading to Monday Gap-Ups. Slider is also correct that Producers have expressed animosity toward Crude Traders, in one instance some months back saying something like 'If they're Short, they'll be lucky to run away with just their pants left.' So I wouldn't be surprised if they would enjoy seeing those who are Short crude take a beating. I'm sure the Producers will try to do what's best for their own interests, but that might well include smacking a bear's nose if the opportunity presented itself. Gives the bear something to think about next time. Of course we don't know what the future holds, but I would not be short here. I admire the boldness of those who are, but think it's a high risk/low potential return play. With this Cape Town meeting still ongoing, more Fed cut(s) looking likely, the market prospering, Middle-East always simmering, Asian recovery seemingly on the horizon, recent moves up with nice volume, etc., OS stocks seem to me to have little downward potential and lots of potential 'Up'. BWDIK? I'm just a simple grrl, and I've been wrong before. regards, diana -Slider --I notice SI's 'spell-check' now accepts 'Greenspanesque'. --- I think that makes you the Thomas Hardy of our time and venue.<G>

To: The Ox who wrote (31322)	11/1/1998 12:57:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

DRILLERS: long time no see. I thought you might be interested in some good news. My work as well as input from my industry sources suggest we will see a bottom within a couple months. My original target was for a bottom during August-Sept, and while we did get a nice bounce from there. IMO, that was not the bottom (it was close) Anyone who bought there should probably just hold. Anyone who has bought in the last week or so, should probably sell. Unfortunately, I think the drillers will likely see at least 50% to 80% losses from here till the ultimate bottom. Good Luck! -Lucretius