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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mister topes who wrote (2846)	10/30/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Tom Murphy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3696

Industry turnaround???....From Merrill Lynch, dated 10/23/98 Semiconductor Capital equipment Sector - We think the sharp rally in semiconductor equipment/materials stocks is about to stall out. Weak fundamentals are likely to drag the stocks down 20-25% from current over bought levels. - Incrementally positive news from customers, semiconductor device manufacturers, during the third quarter conference calls has fueled the rally. But semiconductor equipment orders are unlikely to recover until the second half of CY99 at the earliest. - Semiconductor equipment sales are close to a trough after declining -69% yr-yr in September. We would normally interpret the current weak order pattern as a positive except valuations are at record levels when compared to previous trough valuations in 1996 and 1991. - Applied Materials is on track to meet its bookings guidance for 4Q98. But investors need to realize that Applied is targeting a small amount of business using steep discounts. AMAT is bleeding red doing it. NVLS, LRCX, and KLAC all missed their booking forecast in September quarter because of AMAT's strategy. - A recovery in semi-equipment stocks can not be sustained without a comparable rally in the PC chip stocks. The equipment stocks racing ahead of the device stocks suggests that investors are putting the cart before the Horse. Look to build positions over the next 6 months at lower levels. - The emergence of the low cost PC, crippled Asian semiconductor companies and persistent overcapacity are likely to result in a long drawn out recovery. FYI..the full report is available on-line at the Merrill Lynch Website.

To: mister topes who wrote (2846)	10/31/1998 2:42:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3696

Not to mention $6.60 in cash and $10.60 in book value! Could tax loss selling season drive it down back to low teens? I sold some UTEK (25% of position) to lock in some tax loss at about $18 (paid $28)and got LRCX for less than bookvalue that day for $10. Since then (beginning of the month) UTEK is about the same and I have a 50% gain in LRCX. Good move, if I may say so myself. Since Utek is well above book value, doesn't that mean it has more risk until the stock turns? The fact they miss earnings has me a bit concerned too: biz.yahoo.com I often wonder if the Brinker Effect (you called it shareholder demographics) is holding the stock price up from its more natural position in the sector (many are selling much closer to bookvalue less projected loss for the next yr, or they were before the market turned) I still like the stock long term, but I have not thought it was the best deal in the sector these past months and my gains are there in the other stocks I bought to prove others agree. I agree I would not want to short this stock, or any other in this sector. All it takes is someone big to decide "time to buy" and up they go! regards Kirk out