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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (23954)	10/30/1998 6:41:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

There was a post this morning asking if I could think of a way in which Amazon will survive. It was in response to my question about showing me numbers on how gorwing revenue will make Amazon profitable. There is only one way Amazon could survive. That is for them to enter a higher margin e-commerce business such as fragrances. The book, video, music, discount product line will never be profitable for Amazon no matter how large revenues grow. Amazon succeeding is not impossible but is very unlikely. The analysts almost all assume that financial success for Amazon is a give. I belive that the odds are like winning the lottery for survival. I believe management at Amazon, the analysts and the VCs are aware of this. However, the money to be made from the investing public is too good so the scam continues. This is my opinion. This problem applies specifically to Amazon. I suspect YHOO and other portals will do very well. Also, AOL and EBAY. There will be many but there will never be a company that becomes an almost monopoly on the net with the exception of AOL. AOL does have very high barriers to entry and they can obtain a percentage of a lot of retail e-commerce on the web. Other firms that will do well, are business to business such as officedepot.com and Cisco.com along with DELL. Glenn