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To: Jeffrey Lee who wrote (4291)	10/31/1998 9:19:00 AM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 7342

To: +John Carragher (18621 ) From: +dreydoc Saturday, Oct 31 1998 8:44AM ET Reply # of 18623 Interesting... IP to be $10 billion market by 2001 By David Legard IDG News Service, 10/30/98 The U.S. telecommunications market will see a $3 billion revenue shift away from switched-line telcos to IP-based service providers by 2001, according to Timothy Kraskey, vice president of marketing for the Core Systems division at Ascend Communications. ATM technology will play a key role in the change. Delivering a keynote at ATM '98 yesterday, Kraskey predicted that revenue from IP-based services would grow around 40% annually, reaching $10.5 billion by 2001. ATM, with its support for differentiated services, bandwidth management, scalable high-performance, multicasting and end-to-end quality of service (QoS) will be a prime mover behind these trends, Kraskey said. While the Internet today operates on what he described as a "send and pray" mode, ATM's support for end-to-end QoS will allow providers to offer guaranteed deliveries. Increasingly, ATM will work together with frame relay and IP in delivering new services over a combined voice and data platform. The optimistic outlook for ATM was shared by other speakers at the conference. Asia, for example, has not canceled ATM projects despite the region's economic crisis. "A lot of nationwide ATM infrastructure projects are going ahead with reasonable momentum," said Tan Teik Kheong, vice president of the ATM Forum and WAN business development manager for 3Com Asia-Pacific. "A lot of countries realize there is no way around it. They either have to push ahead or lag behind." With the current weakness in Asian currencies, foreign investors may also want to come in and work with governments and national telcos to develop the infrastructure, he said. Presenting the European perspective, David Wells, director of ATM marketing for Tellabs, described the European Community and Western Europe as growth markets for ATM equipment and services. Major operators are ramping up ATM deployment, he noted. The compound annual growth rate for ATM equipment revenue is expected to be 55% until 2001, and CAGR for ATM service revenue is expected to be 120% in the same period. "ATM is the accepted backbone technology by both established national telcos and the new operators," Wells said.