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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (23985)	10/31/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

OK team - 6 count em 6 lovely references to amzn in this week's barron's including a front cover reference to it having future trouble (no doubt mark and william will explain to us that the fact that amzn was mentioned in the same header as dell and msft (all overvalued stocks in this reference) means that it too will be similarly successful (not profitable because as bezos and covey remind those are two different things), has similar barriers to entry, and really is already the greatest company of the 3) ... imho this will actually lead to another slight short squeeze as more amateurs hop in, once they're squeezed out -- look out below ... imagine that, amzn got more votes than any other single stock for most overvalued stock -- who would've thought that there are that many stupid people who just aren't convinced by the analytical rigor of our board's bulls -- shocking, just shocking The more Amazon.com loses, the more investors seem to love its stock. Amazon last week reported an operating loss of 49 cents a share in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly deficit since coming public last year. But the company's stock surged 10 5/16 to 126 7/16, and it now has quadrupled in 1998, giving it a market value of $6.3 billion. The rally in Amazon demonstrates anew how certain favored Internet stocks get valued differently from companies operating outside of cyberspace. Wall Street gushed over Amazon's profit numbers because its operating loss was lower than expected and because revenues rose fourfold in the quarter, to $154 million. Amazon bulls say the firm will extend its dominance beyond Internet bookselling to other areas like recorded music. Eventually, it's hoped, Amazon will mint money. Yet Amazon isn't expected to turn a profit until 2000, and who knows what the bookselling landscape will be like then. The company is expected to lose $1.50 a share this year and $1.40 in 1999. Amazon now trades at around 200 times its projected 2001 profits. Retailers have been out of favor lately because of concerns about slowing consumer spending. That fear hasn't hurt Amazon, but has knocked down the stocks of its major rivals, Barnes & Noble and Borders Group. Amazon's market capitalization now is 50% more than the combined market value of Barnes & Noble and Borders. Borders, at 25 3/8, trades at 20 times projected 1998 profits, while Barnes & Noble, at 32 5/8, has a P/E of 34. Amazon's sales, meanwhile, are running at about 10% of its rivals' combined revenues. Go figure. and The managers' antipathy to the market's priciest stocks is readily apparent in the list of issues they consider overvalued. Amazon.com, which garnered 49 votes as "most overvalued," and Yahoo, which racked up 37 votes, have no P/Es by virtue of the simple fact that both companies remain unburdened by earnings. Instead, they're valued at multiples of sales, and rather hefty multiples, at that. Dell Computer, which earned 42 votes for most overvalued in our latest survey, sports a P/E of 76 times its last 12 months' net. Microsoft, considered most overvalued by 22 Poll participants, has a P/E of 52, Coca-Cola, with 19 votes, a P/E of 45. And Coke's operating earnings are likely to grow by only 3.5% this year and 6% next. Honesty compels us to report, however, that many stocks the managers pan have tended to rise more than their favorite issues. (See Report Card) That's because their pans in recent years have tilted disproportionately toward the mega-caps, or so-called Nifty Fifty, that dominate the S&P 500. And the S&P, at least in recent years, has been the bull market's leader. the other 4 references are one liners or charts which simply point out that amzn released earnings/"beat expectations"

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (23985)	10/31/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Skeeter, yes, time prem in puts is too much, given the brokerage backing of tulip sales. If the thing sets a new high next week, look out. Could easily float up to who knows where. I'm going to resist the urge to buy puts for now. $145...no reason why not. There is no reason for the stock to be at $40, 50, 80, or $100, much less $126, so I'm not expecting reason to prevail just yet. At some point insiders will begin dumping all they can, and that will help keep the lid on, and set the stage for the next downdraft with the general market cycle.