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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bullw who wrote (4780)	10/31/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: Carl Hindman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

<Yep, 4Xrevenue. I didn't have the article with me either.> I should think Nettles et al would regard this multiple as pure toxic waste. Look at some of Lucents recent acquisitions, they range from about 8x to 20x sales of the acquiree. CIEN has two quarters to prove that recent estimates are part of Barrons 59% error rate of analysts performance forecasts. It would only take one large, or several small deals to do this. Note this is the flipside of the terrible curse of "not having a broad enough customer base", as it takes only one sizable new buy to change the revenue outlook:) Remember how CIEN tanked when ATT announced the cancellation of the orders they never placed! Besides how would the analysts look if they had a "strong buy" out on a stock rising 40% a week :) The shorts have claimed that DWDM is a "commodity" market. Well where is the flood of new system announcements? Where are the Taiwan clones of the MetroDWDM? I look forward to the comments of the Ciena integration engineers when WCOM or Sprint gets their first "evaluation" copy of Lucents 80 channel system! (perhaps we should reserve a few anonymous IP addresses to facilitate this joyous exchange). Will the junk bond market recover so that the CLEC's and RBOC's can fully join in the soon to be optical frenzy??? Time will tell ... fundamental analysis won't. Good luck to the falling knife catchers who, like they who remarry, affirm the "triumph of hope over experience".