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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2295)	10/31/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2754

Over the past 3 weeks, the group average of the 41 semi-equip stocks has increased by 51 percent. Many of the individual stocks within the group have done much better. The number one leader in the group, AFLX is up by 190 percent, and 10 of the stocks are up by greater than 80 percent. As impressive as this performance has been, all of the stocks have a long way to go to reach their 1997 highs. The Table 1 below shows just how far each individual stock has to go in price and percentage terms to reach their 1997 highs. The table is sorted by the gain of each individual stock for the last 3 weeks. The first column shows the high obtained by each stock in 1997. Then the last column shows the percent gain required by each stock to just equal the high they obtained in 1997. As Table 1 shows, all of the stocks have a long way to go to equal their 1997 high. None of the stocks are even close to their former high. The closest one to reaching its 1997 high is PLAB, needing a 44 percent gain from Friday's close. The ranking of the stocks by percentage gain necessary to reach their 1997 high from Friday's close is shown in Table 2. Thirty two of the stocks have to gain 100 percent or more to reach their previous high. ASEC, at the bottom of Table 2, gained 92 percent in the last 3 weeks, but still has to gain 1211 percent just to reach its 1997 high! The bottom 10 stocks in the table have to increase by over 300 percent to reach their old high. Finally, the group average needs to gain 166 percent to reach its 1997 high. The group is also compared to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, SOX-X. As a group, the semi-equips are more volatile than the SOX-X. In the last three weeks, the semi-equips gained 51 percent compared to the 31 percent gain of the SOX-X, and the semi-equips group has to gain 166 percent to reach its high of 1997 while the SOX-X only has to gain 54 percent to reach its high. Table 1 10/30/98 1997 10/09/98 10/30/98 3 WEEK TO 1997 HIGHEST CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE AFLX 28.50 2.50 7.25 190 293 PLAB 31.38 11.00 21.81 98 44 WFR 38.75 3.50 6.88 97 463 ASYT 47.25 6.19 11.94 93 296 ASEC 18.88 0.75 1.44 92 1211 MTSN 16.00 2.75 5.19 89 208 DPMI 72.00 19.31 36.25 88 99 ASMLF 52.88 13.63 25.50 87 107 SVGI 37.75 6.88 12.81 86 195 TER 58.75 18.00 32.50 81 81 TGAL 11.25 1.50 2.69 79 318 NVLS 64.69 23.06 38.81 68 67 ETEC 67.13 20.25 33.88 67 98 PRIA 58.50 10.63 17.31 63 238 SFAM 60.38 10.13 16.13 59 274 LTXX 8.19 1.28 2.00 56 310 MASK 24.00 8.88 13.69 54 75 CYMI 48.75 8.00 12.25 53 298 CMOS 54.13 10.06 14.88 48 264 KLAC 75.63 25.00 36.88 48 105 AMAT 54.00 23.63 34.69 47 56 LRCX 66.31 9.91 14.44 46 359 IPEC 37.19 6.19 8.94 44 316 NANO 13.63 4.81 6.88 43 98 BRKS 39.69 8.63 12.25 42 224 GSNX 23.06 3.63 5.13 41 350 KLIC 57.25 11.56 16.31 41 251 FSII 23.19 4.63 6.50 40 257 EGLS 35.25 9.25 12.56 36 181 CFMT 40.50 6.63 9.00 36 350 HELX 32.19 8.63 11.44 33 181 PHTN 8.38 2.38 3.13 32 168 IMSC 20.00 5.75 7.50 30 167 SMTL 26.88 5.00 6.44 29 317 SFLX 17.50 5.94 7.25 22 141 ATMI 41.75 11.38 13.75 21 204 VECO 72.50 24.75 29.69 20 144 UTEK 34.38 15.38 18.00 17 91 WJ 37.25 16.50 18.63 13 100 COHU 56.00 15.38 17.19 12 226 MICN 27.50 5.38 5.75 7 378 TOTAL 1639.18 408.63 615.56 51 166 SOX-X 403.64 200.80 262.62 31 54 Table 2 10/30/98 1997 10/09/98 10/30/98 3 WEEK TO 1997 HIGHEST CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE PLAB 31.38 11.00 21.81 98 44 AMAT 54.00 23.63 34.69 47 56 NVLS 64.69 23.06 38.81 68 67 MASK 24.00 8.88 13.69 54 75 TER 58.75 18.00 32.50 81 81 UTEK 34.38 15.38 18.00 17 91 NANO 13.63 4.81 6.88 43 98 ETEC 67.13 20.25 33.88 67 98 DPMI 72.00 19.31 36.25 88 99 WJ 37.25 16.50 18.63 13 100 KLAC 75.63 25.00 36.88 48 105 ASMLF 52.88 13.63 25.50 87 107 SFLX 17.50 5.94 7.25 22 141 VECO 72.50 24.75 29.69 20 144 IMSC 20.00 5.75 7.50 30 167 PHTN 8.38 2.38 3.13 32 168 EGLS 35.25 9.25 12.56 36 181 HELX 32.19 8.63 11.44 33 181 SVGI 37.75 6.88 12.81 86 195 ATMI 41.75 11.38 13.75 21 204 MTSN 16.00 2.75 5.19 89 208 BRKS 39.69 8.63 12.25 42 224 COHU 56.00 15.38 17.19 12 226 PRIA 58.50 10.63 17.31 63 238 KLIC 57.25 11.56 16.31 41 251 FSII 23.19 4.63 6.50 40 257 CMOS 54.13 10.06 14.88 48 264 SFAM 60.38 10.13 16.13 59 274 AFLX 28.50 2.50 7.25 190 293 ASYT 47.25 6.19 11.94 93 296 CYMI 48.75 8.00 12.25 53 298 LTXX 8.19 1.28 2.00 56 310 IPEC 37.19 6.19 8.94 44 316 SMTL 26.88 5.00 6.44 29 317 TGAL 11.25 1.50 2.69 79 318 GSNX 23.06 3.63 5.13 41 350 CFMT 40.50 6.63 9.00 36 350 LRCX 66.31 9.91 14.44 46 359 MICN 27.50 5.38 5.75 7 378 WFR 38.75 3.50 6.88 97 463 ASEC 18.88 0.75 1.44 92 1211 TOTAL 1639.18 408.63 615.56 51 166 SOX-X 403.64 200.80 262.62 31 54