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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Richard who wrote (19064)	10/31/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: Lhn5	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

No takers. Happy Halloween. Sorry, just frustrated by the incredibly clear hindsight elicited by the thread yet I still have no confidence that even the near, never mind the medium range future can be accurately predicted. Excpet of course, that the direction will be up-). Based on the conference call, semantics, tone of voice, personal communications, and any other various and sundry techniques, what do you all think the odds are that ANCR will be able to announce an oem in 1998, or at least any other kind of deal similar in magnitude to Inrange? I still feel it is greater than a 50% chance.

To: Ken Richard who wrote (19064)	10/31/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Greg Hull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Ken, Thank you for the compliment. I consider myself very ignorant of high-powered finance and hope that everyone who reads this board considers these comments to be gropings for a model to explain the behavior we have witnessed, rather than keen observations from a battle-hardened veteran. I don't think I would want to endure the pummeling required to become battle-hardened; I've had enough already. <<What is your opinion regarding year end tax selling, if any, on the next 60 days, and how would that play with the Reg Ds. Would it mitigate the need to short ?>> I'm sure there are many qualified to speak to tax selling, but I ain't. We have heard reports from those who have already harvested their tax losses. How many more will choose to do so is anybody's guess. However, I would put this effect as third in importance behind Ancor announcements and preferred shareholder shenanigans. From my perspective, we merely have to wait our way into positive news from Ancor. The longer one waits the more likely the stock will pop. If the pop occurs during the 30 day cooling off period, it will be much more expense to buy into the same position one sold. Of course I am assuming that everyone who is long today would want to be back in as soon as possible. There may be some who will sell as late in the year as possible, wanting as good a price as possible, with no intention of restoring a position in Ancor once they are out. For the rest, it seems that selling sooner and buying back in sooner would be less expensive than waiting until 12/30/98 and buying back in 1/31/99. If there is significant selling at some point before the end of the year, the preferred shareholders may pile on and help drive the price a little lower. This may be the ultimate jinx, but I don't think we will see $1.25 any more, even with tax selling and piling on. Of course it would not be too hard for the preferred shareholders to out-fox me and play some end game that leaves us much worse off than I can even imagine. Any tax guys out there who care to offer an observation? Greg