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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7211)	10/31/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, no analysts project MU profitable this quarter, so I am alone, but I've been there before. <G> But DRAM prices have been very firm to rising, and MU costs are dropping. But projecting earnings for MU is really like throwing darts in the dark because you don't know the mix of contract sales with spot market sales, nor do you know how yields are progressing. The best estimates for this quarter are about a loss of a dime, but memory prices have risen since the quarter began on Sept. 1, and probably will remain firm through the end of next month, which is probably better than the analysts are projecting, so they should beat estimates. Whether it will be enough to be profitable, I don't know, but I think it could be, especially if MUEI has a good quarter. As for 1999, 6 of 16 analysts show them profitable in 1999. And for 2000 the consensus is a profit of $1.75. As for the Koreans, I agree that they won't give up easily, and Samsung appears to be in good shape. Hyundai is not in great shape, and LG is definitely not. If MU makes their goals of .18/.15 by end of next year, they will remain ahead of the curve in costs, and whether MU is profitable or not, it will be hard for anyone else to be profitable in DRAM. Carl