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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1919)	11/1/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans Presents...The Honor Roll (That's Entertainment) From: Big Bucks Friday, Oct 16 1998 9:11PM ET Reply # of 25902 MrGreenjeans, A Bear market is a bear market. Yes it is up due to the Fed's actions but will it continue on an upward trend with a slow down in manufacturing and consumer spending brought on by external pressures. I just don't see any sustainable upside going deeper into Q4-'98. Am I wrong, maybe, but I don't think so. I've got a pretty good track record concerning the economy... Remember a bear market is a bear market.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1919)	11/1/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans Presents...The Honor Roll (That's Entertainment) To: MrGreenJeans (25414 ) From: Jacob Snyder Sunday, Oct 18 1998 6:35PM ET Reply # of 25902 MrGreenJeans: re: "Low inflation + Low interest rates + Slow Growth + A Decrease in Rates + Decent profit growth in 1999 = A sustainable upside" IMO, all the requirements for the continuation of the goldilocks scenario are going to happen, except the "Decent profit growth in 1999" part. Let's be specific about this: A: what is the profit growth in 1999 that would be required to have an increase in the market's PE? B: what will profit growth be in 1999? My guess is that A=10-15%, and B=0-5%. I think the odds of B=or>A are quite small. So, you don't get the sustainable upside. Instead, you get a volatile market going sideways, at best. Good Call So Far!

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1919)	11/1/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans Presents...The Honor Roll (That's Entertainment) To: MrGreenJeans (7608 ) From: Alan Bell Friday, Sep 4 1998 1:06PM ET Reply # of 8589 But the other concern seems to be the possibility of a recession in the US. We have seen a number of big investors, and not just the usual bears, claim that we are entering a recession. The claim also is that by the time that the Fed recognizes this, it will be too late to lower rates (or alternatively because long bond rates are so low, lowering the fed rate won't stimulate much.)

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1919)	11/1/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Frequently Asked Questions About the Honor Roll 1.Why Post an Honor Roll? To honor those who had the most insight and vision of economic events especially related to the financial markets. 2.What Point are you trying to Prove? Just want to make the point that most investors mark their opinion to the market very authoritatively, dare I say arrogantly (there I said it), without careful thought...and quickly forget, or want to forget, that they made them. 3.Are You giving out prizes? Yes, I will take the grand prize winner out to lunch after they visit bankruptcy court for adhering to their own advice when they were clearly wrong and when they clearly should have changed course but of course...their egos got the best of them.