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To: Iceberg who wrote (16979)	11/1/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Susan Saline	Respond to of 53068

>>>>Something happend on or about October 8th across a broad range of stocks. What I would like to know is what happened after the close on the 8th and the open of the 9th. <<<< Capitulation ... on October 5 through 7 I took some losses, on stocks I had bought months earlier. These are my worst percent losses taken .... during October 5 through 7 -96% -88% -65% These are my worst percent losses during September in which this month .... every other day, the term "capiutulation" was heard -36% -35% -23% If these numbers are representative of the "masses" it may represent the fact that there are few losses left to be taken. which ... once the heavy burden of losses are out of the way, leaves money to buy other "fire sale stocks" to try and recoup losses taken. some of the best October profits taken (after Oct. 8) .... on various trades (just so you don't think I'm a total idiotic trader :o) 9% 30% 41% 44% 48% also ... Ron wrote an earlier post on bottoming .... and hurting .... the definition fit me (personally) to a tee! I will go find it and post the URL again ... maybe many will see themselves .... Just one persons opinion .... Sue

To: Iceberg who wrote (16979)	11/1/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: Susan Saline	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

continue ... losses so I have a question now, that I have been mulling over for a couple weeks now. Since many (probably) have already taken losses, and institutions must take losses before the last day of October ..... leaves me to ponder, will there be any more selling for tax loss purposes this year?

To: Iceberg who wrote (16979)	11/1/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: Susan Saline	Respond to of 53068

>>>>Something happend on or about October 8th across a broad range of stocks. What I would like to know is what happened after the close on the 8th and the open of the 9th.<<<< the only thing I might add to the below is "crying" LOL To: +Iceberg (16893 ) From: +Ron McKinnon Saturday, Oct 24 1998 10:10AM ET Reply # of 16981 >>>Interesting retrospective view. However, on a prospective basis, how is one to pinpoint "the low" the next time such an opportunity arises? when: every talking head says we are headed to DOW 4000 when every paper has "market panic" in big bold letters when all the "gurus" say that they KNEW this was coming when your gut hurts, your brain hurts, and you just want to turn off CNBC and go puke then we are at a low

To: Iceberg who wrote (16979)	11/1/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53068

Ice>>>>Something happend on or about October 8th across a broad range of stocks. What I would like to know is what happened after the close on the 8th and the open of the 9th. Hundreds of stocks that I scanned bottomed on or about the 8th. The market turned on a dime on the 9th, and I'm clueless as to why short answer nothing happened everything happened long answer:brain droppings prior to 10/8 the DOW had tested the 7400ish level 4 or 5 times, providing strong support the major averages were only down a bit while the broad base of stocks was littered with ones off 40-80% from highs Wlilie's Willy is everywhere on the news, the media clogs our brains with nothing except Cigar talk the Long Term Credit fiasco was breaking; a few $bil leveraged to $100bil+ of exotic derrivitives, combine this with the Russian crash, and the Asian Flu, problems in So Amer a slowdown in IPO'S a flat to inverted yield curve; flight to safety in bonds sea change from inflation worries to recession fears so banks and brokerages crash BKB CTI JPM LEH MER and all the good ones go down with them 50% FLT ONE FNN a few bankruptcies amoung the crappy high risk, junk lenders record levels of re financing so the securitization market burps, belches, farts down go the good ones like KRB PVN COF 50% some problems in high tech; slowdown fears, internet fever wanes bye bye CSCO DELL INTC AOL AMZN YHOO the assholes in OPEC can't control supply US oil inventory at highs recession fears so oil service stocks that went up far too much over the prior few years drop 80% recession fears, concerns about corporate spending, lowered consumer confidence say good buy to airlines, car rental, 5 star hotels, expensive retailers DAL AMR UAL AVI HRZ FS TIF GUC investors have had a great run, have lots of taxable gains, need some losses to offset so they sell their shit stocks, keep the good ones so the DOW stays up some while the Russell falls a ton 27 year old fund managers who don't have a clue but manage billions panic, want to keep their $mm toys, hit the sell button smart people go cash heavy momentum investors jump ship short sellers have stars in their eyes, making money for the first time in years, hammer stocks to the ground, keep banging the ask till it screams that old book, something like "Mass Hysteria and Crowd Behaivor" takes over PANIC FEAR Oct 9 someone has the balls to buy something, FINALLY a few program trades hit people who had missed the big run before and have cash say "hmmm, I can buy a great company cheap" T/A players see stuff turn up off of support the funds kiddies say gee wizz, I better back that stock I just sold 25% higher or daddy will take the car keys away the Fed "leaks" that they may well finally drop rates to catch up with real world market rates a majority of poeple in the world don't give a rats ass what is on Monica's blue dress banks say that most of their foreign exposure and derrivitive ain't that big or is collatoalized Dell says " what Asian slowdown, we are growing over there, it's only the garbage companies that are blaming their shitty sales on someone else instead of their own inept, incompetent, fat, management" Abby C and Joey B say the Bull still has horns even Martin B mumbles that maybe there is a stock worth buying etc, etc FEAR takes a back seat to GREED when you were a kid having fun on the sea-saw things were fine till the bully jumped on one side and the balance tipped he stays for a while messing up your fun then he gets bored leaves to go kick sand in someone eles's face jumps off BAMM, the balance shifts in a heartbeat takes a while to get back in balance the market is manic/depressive only rarely does it take Lithium to chill out almost always swings too far in either direction makes for crappy investing but great trading maybe