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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9328)	11/1/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Fred Levine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Sunday November 1, 6:00 pm Eastern Time WEEKAHEAD-Brazil bulls lift LatAm stock sentiment By Tom Ashby CARACAS, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks are expected to continue their nervous upwards path this week following Brazil's announcement of a tough fiscal package aimed at fighting off global financial contagion. Bankers expect the region's biggest economy to sign a deal with the International Monetary Fund in the next few days, providing further fuel for a recovery that is redeeming markets that have lost between 33 and 63 percent in real terms so far this year. In Chile and Argentina, the bullish sentiment is further strengthened by hopes of a interest rate cut, while in Venezuela nervousness ahead of the November 8 regional elections could hit sentiment towards the end of the week. ''After the initial negative reaction to Brazil's plan, I think the IMF funding, G7 measures and expected interest rate cuts are creating positive expectations for the market,'' said Ruben Pasquali, a trader at Argentina's Mayoral brokerage. ''The only negative point for the market could be quarterly results. That could cause some differentiation among companies,'' he said. Argentina's MerVal index closed up 0.5 percent last week at 457 points, adding to a 20 percent advance for October as a whole. Slowing growth rates and rising unemployment in Chile are pointing to a rate cut there, dealers said, which should help extend the rally on the index, which gained 4 percent last week to close at 73 points. After a public holiday on Monday, Brazil's share prices should continue their upward trend following the 8 percent gain on Friday, traders said. But even if the long-awaited financing package for Brazil materializes at the IMF this week, dealers said it was still too early to call an end to the recessionary pressures. ''I'm only likely to start becoming optimistic some time next year,'' said one Sao Paulo-based trader. Jitters ahead of regional elections this weekend could take the shine off Venezuela's recent stock market recovery, which dealers expect to continue for the first days of the week. The regional election is seen as a litmus test of public opinion ahead of presidential elections on December 6. A recent opinion poll showing second-placed presidential candidate Henrique Salas Romer, the favorite of the business community, narrowing the gap on failed coup leader Hugo Chavez, lifted the market Friday. ''I believe we will keep rallying on continuing positive expectations of Salas Romer closing the gap on Chavez. But the rally could fizzle out at end of week in expectations of problems the elections could bring in terms of conflicts over results,'' said an equities analyst at a leading bank. In Mexico, stocks also rallied strongly Friday on hope of a multilateral package for Brazil, rising 4.277 percent. fred