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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16926)	11/1/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 18056

Re: "The reason then and now differ, but I believe the results will be the same, but the time period (from the first peak near 10,000, or in our case the top at 9350 to the last bottom), I believe will be shorter than the 16 years in the prior period." I find the scenario that you set forth interesting and not too far from my projection. I'm a little more positive than you on the top of the market, since I believe 10,000 is realistic. However, I'm a little more negative on the duration of the "trading range," since I see no reason for less than 16 years of sideways movement. Why do you believe that the time period will be shorter than 16 years? Best wishes, I2

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16926)	11/1/1998 8:59:00 PM
From: Enigma	Respond to of 18056

Zeev/George - here is the 'replaying 1929' site: urbansurvival.com Zeev - none of the charts we set so much store on are inflation adjusted - You might like to comment on this superimposition? I wonder why they don't superimpose 1973/4?. This was a terrible bear market which by comparison would take the Dow (now )to about 5600 I would guess - roughly that. I agree with you about the 10,000 level and its comparison to the period 1966 to 1982 and 1000 on the Dow. I remember this period very well, from being President of a mutual fund group in 1971/2 then a stockbroker, and then in the (gold) mining business from 1974-1981.. The market had a lot of cracks at staying above 1000 and always failed. In fact I have been away from the corporate world a year longer than it finally broke through 1000! And I can tell you that it doesn't seem very long ago! It's a little like the situation in the gold market today, although the 300 level is a shorter resistance point (so far) than 1000 was on the Dow. 16 years to break 10,000 - maybe not - but we've gone up extremely rapidly. E