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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OtherChap who wrote (24078)	11/1/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

OC these conspiracy theories are rediculous. When it comes to Internet stocks, no analyst gets it right. They can't get a handle on this kind of growth and player shakeout any better than the companies can! They can't rely on customer surveys like they can with enterprise software or hardware companies, so they rely on industry projections from Jupiter or such, and Jupiter has missed the growth by a mile. Then there's the CYA (cover-your-ass) factor. The IR folks at the companies don't want to overstate, and the anaysts don't want to overstate because they have families to feed, so we get mediocre direction. Take for example your market call on Amazon Thursday night. You thought Amazon was going to drop six on Friday. If you had been an analyst, or in this case strategest, with a career to protect, you would have said something like "Amazon's come a long way, so anything can happen."

To: OtherChap who wrote (24078)	11/1/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: L.J. Hoffman	Respond to of 164684

>>>For instance. The keiretsu don't want disney moving in on their turf. Disney has the brands and the deep pockets to make life miserable for them..<<< Usually your "gee, maybe my Mom shouldn't let me watch the X-Files" conspiracy theories are just wrong...now they're idiotic. Unless I'm wrong and Eisner is, at,this very moment, rethinking Disney's entire internet strategy because SEEK's stock price dropped. I suggest you buy a business book--AMAZON stocks plenty of excellent titles and you can check their enlightening and value-added reviews to help you select one.

To: OtherChap who wrote (24078)	11/1/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<<Yes, indeed, I sense in the relatively near future the financial situation behind the 'net stocks in general is going to be looked on as one of the greatest frauds in the history of the equity markets.>> What do you mean by "relatively near future"? What do you see as the catalyst to this "correction" of the inappropriate market caps of these stocks? I don't see any imminent problems. AMZN will probably sell $250M this quarter (my wild guess). The street will love it--over $600M in revenues for 1998. Double that for the next couple years and you've got sales near BKS. I worried about the Q1 98 vs Q4 97 comparison, but AMZN did fine with this seasonal issue last year. The Q1 99 vs Q4 98 comparison is my biggest fear. AMZN's second wave of competition will eventually challenge them, but their competitors have been anything but nimble so far. If what you suspect about the keiretsu is correct, why are you advocating betting against it? To me you are just making a case for selling short internet stocks outside of the kieretsu, with possibly hedging the position with long positions within the keiretsu. I would never have bought AMZN stock at under $15 per share (split-sdjusted) were it not for its relationship with KP. Outside of the keiretsu, the stock is worthless (JMHO). As a member of a network of companies with more market cap than MSFT, the rules of the game for AMZN are different. Tom