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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jorge who wrote (11692)11/1/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: Edwarda  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13594
 
Zax and Jorge, it looks to me as though you are dealing with two separate questions. One is, the company and fundamental prospects for AOL. The other is, what is it worth?

Right now, the company is a juggernaut. A lot of the people coming online now for the first time are the "Joe six-packs" of this world. For them AOL is synonymous with being online.

For most of us AOL is the equivalent of training wheels. One gets comfortable and moves on. For many of these people, it becomes home and they do not move on.

The tilt in the estimates is definitely on the upward side. The most recent quarter's subscriber growth and advertising revenue growth blew past most estimates.

But what is it worth?



To: Jorge who wrote (11692)11/1/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: zax  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13594
 
I don't want to sound condescending, even though I'm sure it's going to be mistaken as such, but being concerned with P/E is a sign of an inexperienced investor, IMO...Way too much importance is given to it.

I don't want to sound condescending either, George. Thats why I'm going to go long on AOL on up days and sell after small gains. Then, when AOL runs too much, I'm going to short the hell out of it.

This way, I will burn as much of AOL's market capitalization to market makers and point spreads as possible, and reinvest my modest gains into small caps.

Please, don't get paranoid about what I'm doing. Its really for the best.

You see, when you make love to a woman, its really a lot more fun to sometimes be on top, and sometimes be on the bottom.

It is now AOL shareholders turn to be on the bottom.

Good luck investing.

Regards,

-- Eric