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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (7231)	11/1/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<<. i think we need some more positive news to turn the first derivative positive as well, but the risk/reward tradeoff is on the side of reward now. just a gut feeling there.>> Sorry Jess, I misunderstood you. I thought we were talking about the slope (first derivative) and the rate of change of the slope (second derivative) of the BTB, which is not influenced by news (vs. stock price?). A ratio based on 2 hard numbers, and which can be manipulated nonetheless by accelerating or delaying shipments, as was the case this past Q. Likewise, the numerator of the ratio, order bookings, can massaged also. But both, and the ratio derived from them, are independent of news. OTOH, your gut was probably dead on for the week of Oct 9. However the reason for the rise this time was different, driven by momentum to the exclusion of any real leads / indiocators. Momentum generated by the wishful pronouncements of the analysts @ H & Q, Credit Suisse, and Elliot Rogers. I'm one of few in these boards with the opinion that for AMAT and KLAC, current pricing renders the risk/benefit ratio incompatible w/ maximum returns, while for their smaller brethren, the upside is still there (I'm talking about 4 baggers here, not at 50% upside). All MHO, BP