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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (25911)	11/1/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

sold out my semi positions on friday -believe it is a suckers rally or the stocks are ahead of them. nvls did very well as well as the whole group but again this turnaround will be long and u-shaped with eps rather than v shaped like in 1996. my point is the whole group will probably be in a trading range. the rally has been fuled mostly by companies like klac, nvls, saying that although things are tough that they will see sequential growth next quarter-ie-the bottom of the cycle. my sources say its to early to tell that this may be a head fake because of christmas orders or seasonal factories. amat is fine but i still like second tier players on pullbacks that could be ripe for consolidation. ie-asyt, egls,qual,svgi, asmlf, or nsm and tsemf. not shorting like i did last time because the momentum is strong on the belief mutual funds don't want to miss the rally and amat seems like it moves dramatic before numbers then i believe it falls back. i see amat as a good short 37-39 but right not long or short. one thing is for sure don't look for any really good numbers until last quarter of 1999 at a minimum. good luck brian