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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (7234)	11/2/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 10921

Gottfried: I didn't mean to imply anything improper by anybody at the company or Semi. My point was this: Normal practice by most all cap equip / manufacturing firms is to delay or accelerate shipments, as much as customers will allow, to optimize their financials (rightly so). Also, to the extent the bean counters allow it, some shipments occuring on the 1st day of a mos / quarter will be booked in the prior month, or vice versa. More controversial and harder to do in a public co., but done frequently, nonetheless. I did it all the time w/ my co. (cap equip, but NOT semi-equip). I have no doubts that the semi-equips of topic have been doing this. For example, from the Credit Suisse report on KLAC (10/16/98): "Top line apt to dip below $200MM. To maintain 5 - 6 month backlog, KLA is apt to lower sequential shipments by $10MM in Q2." Desperate times call for desperate measures, and an additional measure (but a lot more controversial) is massaging the orders. Sometimes you convince a customer to sign the PO NOW by giving him special exit terms on the order; now you have more than you did before from this customer (nothing). I have no doubts that without these efforts, the BTB would have appeared (or will appear) worse than published. The relevance in all of this is NOT that they (the companies) are doing it, but that the analysts went on an upgrading binge earlier this month with an intepretation of numbers that depended almost ENTIRELY on how they were massaged. No clear answers, no margin for the positive. Yet CLEAR margin to the negative. Comments by the companies to the effect of: "...we have had some orders, we do not know whether they are anecdotal or whether they form a trend, we know that there will be an uptick in the future and we certainly hope that this is it NOW," were transformed to "the bottom is here, we're on our way up" by the ANALysts. Many of us jumped in, several of us just sat and watched with amazement and disbelief, and then finally shorted these stocks. This is what I have been taking exception with, and the proof is now beginning to appear in the pudding with the negative Morgan and Merrill comments today... I think this has been one big cynical manipulation of the sector, which has, more than anything, enriched their pockets. Just as cynically, I have no doubt that Merrill and Morgan were negative today because they missed the boat and want a chance to join the party. None of it has any bearing whatsoever on the continued grim present day realities of the sector. All in MHO. Best regards, BP

To: Gottfried who wrote (7234)	11/3/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Does anyone know whether Nikon still trades ADR's and, if so, the symbol. I used to track "NIMOY" and it has been discontinued.

To: Gottfried who wrote (7234)	11/8/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Gottfried, <<it would be helpful if we shared our strategies>>Well here's a strategy that's bound to create some interest. The big winners thus far have been AMAT, NVLS and KLAC. But the rest of my portfolio suffers from miniaturization, (ASYT, CYMI, VLSI ADI, COHU etc.) Using just the stocks in the semiconductor equipment area here is how I would reallocate my resources. I would (I did) sell part of my positions in each of the above stocks the purchase the following stocks. Based on Fridays closing prices the acquisition cost of the following is $9,912.00 plus commissions. Symbol # Shares Closing Price Micn 200 6 1/4 LRCX 100 14 1/2 FSII 200 6 3/8 SFLX 100 8 3/8 NANO 200 6 5/8 GSNX 100 7 3/8 PHTN 300 4 LTXX 300 2 1/2 HELX 100 10 7/8 I expect the AMAT will continue to hold up well. But in the next six months will it double? Some of these stocks on this list will because the trend now is to undervalued small caps. I believe that there are two ways to approach this problem. (How to create wealth without trying too hard or getting too slick) One would be to sell part of a badly losing position that will be a long time in the recovers room. ( for me this would be CYMI and VLSI). The Other approach would be to sell approximately 270 share of AMAT to purchase the above mentioned portfolio. You would be going from 270 share of AMAT to l600 shares of the above. I do believe in taking my own advice and I do own the above portfolio minus one stock that I will purchase on Monday. If anyone has a better mixture of Semiconductor Equipment stocks please be free to post your portfolio recommendations , keeping the total value about $10,000. Good Luck Monday,........Jerome