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To: yard_man who wrote (10065)	11/2/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

I don't know. Much depends on the point of acceleration at which $/yen carry trade became so popular. A few years ago when $/yen was its lowest (sub 90) an acquaintance who worked for an Islamic bank's forex division said to me that short $ and long yen positions have had several stops at ~96. He then professed at breach of that level would quickly put $ at 105+. Boy was he right. If I remember correctly, I believe all that happened in a matter of 2 months. That was the time US' strong $ policy is taking hold. I am not sure if a lot of carry trading went on prior to $ recovering to 105 yen. Based on this history, my speculation is that a significant amount of carry trade might have taken place at or above this level. As I read in some of the Reuters' story, 109 shows-up as a crucial bottom. So, I would venture to think that sub 109 for $/yen would put extreme(technical) pressure on the buck. As one article said, it is not the strong fundamentals of Japanese economy that will drive this event. Rather, the sheer size of the short yen and long $ positions will make this a possibility. Since this will be a potential catastrophic event, I don't expect the PPT to sit on its hands. Again, WTFDIK?