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To: Alan Hume who wrote (9088)	11/2/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Alan: I was thinking along a similar vein this weekend, until the US Purchasing Manager numbers came out this AM, in addition to personal income and personal spending numbers. All of them point to a coming slow down in the US, especially the Purchasing Manager number, which indicates a contraction. Personal spending increases have far outstripped personal income increases, and personal savings are zero. Unless we get more numbers to the contrary of this trend before 17 November, then a cut is a done deal and the only question is, how much? My impression is that 0.5% has been priced into the market already. No further or greater cuts have been priced in as of today. Just my uneducated opinion, of course. Best regards, BP