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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jelrod3 who wrote (25924)	11/2/1998 4:40:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Reasons for the love affair: I have read this thread since early 1995. It consistenly has the best commentaries I have seen on any board anywhere. The names have changed at times, but good analysis continues. The love affair is not all with AMAT: there are some bright people who hang out here. And some of the better ones may not be who they appear to be. It makes for an interesting place to hang out. As far as AMAT the company, what is there not to love if you enjoy following technology? I draw a blank, save for the cyclical nature of its industry. The stock: I think everyone here agrees that it is overpriced now, but will hit 80 within 4 years. We see the possibilty of buying at 30 or less, perhaps much less, and therefore getting a 3x to 4x return in 4 years. Sounds like love to me, or at least infatuation: we may never have that honeymoon, but we believe we will. I think the street long ago stopped looking at the current situation for amat, and started looking to the next up cycle. Why the sudden long term vision? Despite what is often posted here, the street does do this at times: look at the net stocks or something like rambus. So I am simply focused on buying it when the market is down and it is about 2.5 to 3x book. Nothing else has worked for about a year. Best wishes, gene

To: jelrod3 who wrote (25924)	11/3/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: ddt99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

60 times FORECASTED 1999 earnings . I think " Forecast" is the key word for helping you to understand the Love affair with AMAT. The 17 analysts are wrong most of the time, why would the forecasted # seemed reliable to you? As you stated, " 5 have decreased their estimates, dropping the consensus from 60 cents to 56 cents." I would guess that, 12 months earlier, their estimates would have had been much higher. Anyone out there want to guess what the weather is going to be like on Christmas? Sunny? Snowy? Cloudy? Rainy? 25% probability.