To: MythMan who wrote (35125 ) 11/2/1998 7:29:00 PM From: Mike M2 Respond to
MM, Wall St. ideas are rarely balanced they range from unduly optimistic to utterly absurd. De twins strive to expose their myths,lies,hype,propaganda, spin doctoring, new era reasoning, promises that never come true like double digit earnings growth this Q Micron earning as much as $17/sh in 1997 not even close! , PC sales growth in perpetuity ( well almost) on a global scale, Tech stocks have bottomed, SEA economic miracle which became a "glitch in the road" I don't know how many times SEA has bottomed and is on the mend, AG saying the Asian crisis will have a small but not neglible effect on our economy-you wouldn't think so with the earnings of the multinationals! productivity gains that cannot be measured even when the commerce dept. tries to invent new ways to measure the elusive productivity gains. aggressive accounting like recurring non recurring one time charges , stock option accounting that reduce salaries expense and as result overstates earnings and they get a tax write off on top of it, share buy backs which seem more intent on a rapidly rising share prices rather than investing in the future and paying dividends,money center banks that finance hedge fund speculators, A widespread consensus amongst Wall St and government economists who see only one type of price inflation as measured by cpi and ppi while ignoring the fact that the biggest financial bubbles -US in the 20's , Japan in the 80's and YES THE CURRENT BUBBLE occurred in the absence of consumer and producer price inflation. The fact that debt securitzion has allowed credit growth to grow unrestrained by anything but demand -what ever happen to bank reserve limits, consumer debt is at record levels while our savings rate is negative for the first time since 1938. We are running record trade deficits. Public participation in the stock market is at unprecedented level -for the first time ever US household have more $ in mutual funds than bank accounts. These are just some of the reasons why I am bearish and focus on the negative because this market has become a confidence game and a Ponzi scheme. IT will end very badly and Wall st will not ring a bell so de twins have to do it. With the current insanity and enabling AL I would not be surprised to see marginal new highs but it is what comes after- the inevitable bust that concerns me. ho ho ho Remember he who ho ho hos last ho ho hos best. Mike
