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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john dodson who wrote (5015)	11/2/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12623

John, CIEN is trading above the upper daily bollinger band and above the gap that was left on September 10 between 18 and 18 3/8. The stock gapped up this morning and didn't completely fill it on the pullback to 17 7/8. While the chart is bullish, I'm suspect of it because the stock is primarily going up on takeover speculation. While there are rumors of a pending new contract, it is doubtful that this accounts for the run from 12 to 22 in only two days. I would imagine that the strong overall market is helping too. If you accept that CIEN is rising primarily on takeover speculation, it will probably fall as fast as it went up if the takeover doesn't occur in the next few days. People who bought the stock looking for a takeover are not investors and will sell fast if speculation surfaces that the company is not in play at this time. I shorted a little CIEN today at 19 7/16 and 21 so I may not be very popular here. However, I'm a friendly short LOL...just trying to make a buck. I have to admit that this is a highly risky short because I will get hammered IF the company is taken over. However, I don't think CIEN is in play right now and my best guess is that it will settle back to 15 or 16. Based on the chart, I would expect support at 18 1/4. If that fails, then I think my 15 to 16 target will become very likely. Best of luck to all, long or short. Dan