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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Murphy who wrote (2002)	11/2/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81029

Thanks Bill. I don't know if it is an ad or a financial commentary which many institutions do as a service to clients. Germany is a big holder, publically and privately, of gold and, for this reason, it's interesting to read the opinion of a big German bank. I don't think Germans will easily forget the hyperinflation of the 1920s and the political events thereafter. So they know all about paper money! A big unknown is, of course, the new German socialist government and how it will regard the German gold holdings. Traditionally, socialism means printing --- means inflation and this would mean a weak Dmark. (Bad for POG) But, as Germany is now a principal partner in Euroland, the other partners will not allow that. So, I wonder how the socialism will work if the socialists can't buy votes by "redistributing" someone else's money?!

To: Bill Murphy who wrote (2002)	11/2/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Robert Dirks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81029

Hey look, most "market gurus" are now hot on Gold! Now could someone telegraph those Harvard reared, red suspender clad pencil heads running the CB's............. Market gurus hot on gold, cool on stocks Monday, November 2, 1998 CAROLYN LEITCH Investment Reporter Market watchers have taken a shine to gold, The Globe and Mail's latest Bulls vs. Bears survey of investment professionals indicates. Sixty per cent of those polled predicted the price of gold will be higher six months from now, while only 12 per cent said they expect the price to fall. In the previous survey, two weeks ago, 44 per cent of respondents were looking for higher gold prices, while 19 per cent were calling for a fall. The balance of opinion -- which is the bearish percentage subtracted from the bullish -- now stands at 48, up from 25.9 two weeks ago. The latest survey marks the most bullish stance that market pros have taken on the yellow metal since April, when the Toronto Stock Exchange reached its peak for the year. As was the case back in April, investment professionals are calling for a rise in the price of gold amid robust gains in equity markets, which may suggest they consider the recent upswing in stock markets too steep. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and falling stock prices. On Friday, the price of bullion fell amid low inflation and a plan by the Group of Seven industrialized nations to head off economic crises around the world. Gold ended the week at $292.55 (U.S.) an ounce on the Commodity Exchange division on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Many people consider sentiment surveys such as Bulls v. Bears to be contrary indicators. The most optimistic opinions often come just before a fall, while the outlook brightens as market watchers believe prices have hit a trough. While gold was gaining in lustre, equity markets were losing some of their allure, the survey suggests. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents forecast the Toronto Stock Exchange will close higher six months from now, while 29 per cent expect it to take a tumble during that time. That compares with 72 per cent calling for an upturn and 24 per cent calling for lower stocks in the previous survey. The balance of opinion slipped to 28.6 from 48.3. The TSE 300-stock composite increased 10.6 per cent in October, to post its biggest percentage gain in one month since August, 1984, when the index surged ahead 11.5 per cent. The outlook on U.S. equity markets is similarly negative, according to market professionals. Thirty-nine per cent of those surveyed are bullish on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, while 32 per cent are siding with the bears. Two weeks ago, 57 per cent were upbeat and 27 per cent were pessimistic about the S&P 500. The balance of opinion has edged down to 7.2 from 30. Since Oct. 8, the S&P 500 has gained 15 per cent. On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average wrapped up its best month since January, 1987. The blue chip index gained 9.6 per cent in October, compared with a 13.8-per-cent rally in January, 1987. Survey respondents are also marginally more positive toward Canadian bonds. Forty-six per cent expect the long bond price to rise during the next six months, little changed from the 47 per cent who made that call in the previous survey. Those who expect the price to fall have slipped to 23 per cent of respondents from 32 per cent. The balance of opinion stands at 23.1, up from 14.5. On Friday, Canadian bond prices fell on expectations strong economic growth in the United States and Canada could delay the interest rate reductions that some investors have been anticipating. Bulls vs. Bears is a proprietary survey developed by The Globe and Mail as an indicator of Canadian professional market sentiment. There were 28 respondents to the latest survey. BULLS VS BEARS THE INVESTMENT PROS FIGHT IT OUT Every two weeks we survey money managers, strategies and advisers on where they expect financial markets to be in six months - up, down or unchanged. Here is what they think this week. BULLISH BEARISH TSE 300 57% 29% S&P 500 39% 32% Bond prices 46% 23% Gold 60% 12% The rest are neutral