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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBL who wrote (24230)	11/2/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: zax	Respond to of 164684

I think the party is already over... Chip equipment makers were downgraded today and signs of cuts in capital spending are surfacing rapidly and will become impossible to ignore. A crash in US markets would be so disastrous at this point that all sort of promises will be made (with taxpayers money) to keep the financial system afloat. (The bubble is no longer inflating, it is being prevented from deflating too rapidly. The scenario I see is a gradual move back to value over a period of a few months (accelerating after 4Q earnings are in). Internet stocks with questionable valuations will be trashed. (Stocks from large oil companies should be very good buys a few months from now.) I agree with you 100% Check out EPD if you want a good oil related offering thats not too well known. High quality corporate debt thats paying out already. IPOd at 20 in the wrong climate and at 16 and change now. I picked it up today, with eight other various (even some cheaper internut) stocks to diversify and be prepared for the rough road I see ahead. With the FED pumping in the dollars, the last place to park it now is in the bank or in bonds, IMO. Good luck. -- Eric

To: JBL who wrote (24230)	11/2/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Philip Logos	Respond to of 164684

Internet stocks with questionable valuations will be trashed. You don't mean Amazon included, do you? Say it isn't so, JBL. No way. Warren Buffett says the most reliable valuation method is the discounted cash flows method at present value of every dollar that can ever be extracted out of the company in question. (paraphrased) Today investors have attested to a valuation of 6.5 billion dollars for Amazon. That means Amazon's earnings over it's lifetime should at present value be 6.5 billion dollars. That is purported to be (by the bulls) the discounted value of some great big number in terms of earnings achieved during the next millenium. (not just century) Problem is, will Amazon ever pay a dividend? I could start figuring the true valuation by setting up a table. I do know that Amazon is forecasted to earn $1.00 per share over the next 15 years: 2 cents per share in 2001, 4 cents in 2002, 6 cents in 2003, and so forth. Don't laugh -- it's better than they're doing now. Phil

To: JBL who wrote (24230)	11/2/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: Gary Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

CapX is always the last to fall in a recession.... Any negative economic data at this point is just confirmation that the Fed did the correct thing to avoid a slowdown. I would be surprised if the fed cuts rates again. The momentum is definitely up at this point. The world markets are moving up after months of going down. The Japanese are finally doing the right things after raising taxes last year in the face of recession. Things has changed from just a few weeks ago. At least that's the perception. At this point all the bull needs is a positive perception. Don't fight the tape....