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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (25930)	11/2/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

quality(qual)just got bought out by idti.it was almost 100%premium in a srock deal. as i stated on friday and in the past is you people should look at the second and third tier semi because thats where you will find value-ie-under book-1xsales that is ripe for takeover. qual is one of my holdings. i like asyt,egls,svgi, klic,lrcx, on pullbacks. these company trade comparable to book value and our ripe for takeover. my favorite as i 've stated numerous times is tower semiconductor(tsemf)-not equipcompany-it trades at 7.25. it has a book value of over 12 with around 6 a share in net cash and the company just bought back 1miilion of the 13 million shares outstanding . to make a long story short is they are in talks with major semi company in the developing of new flash technology and i see it as a potential 30-50 stock by 2000. my point is the big move will be in the secondary because they are more beaten down and very underowned by the funds. good luck. amat will trade between 24-38 for the next year and with 300million shares outstanding they will not have any eps over 1 doller until minimum of 2000. the play are in the takeover candidates not the acquirer.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (25930)	11/3/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine: Agreed. I thought that I was singing in your choir for the past few months... :) BP

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (25930)	11/3/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, RE: Please do not forget, this downturn is NOT a repeat of 1996. Macroeconomic conditions are worse. The semiconductor downturn is worse. This is much more comparable to the early 90s or mid-80s than to 1996. I agree 100% that this is not '96 revisited. However, if you make the case that this downturn is more akin to the early 90's or mid 80's slowdown, you should also point out the growth that occurred in this sector thereafter. This sector could be compared to a compressed spring; the more it compresses the higher it will go once released. We just had a month of historically low capex going back to '93. The spring is compressing. Add to this the recent moves on the part of the Japanese to reform their banking system and greater liquidity by the US and Germany, and the picture is not all that bad going forward for this sector. Historically, these stocks have had enormous runs after dry spells of capex. If one thinks that pattern will not repeat(as many posters on this thread apparently do) do not buy AMAT or any other equipment stock. I for one, have my bets placed and have, and will be adding to my position in this sector. Brian Regarding AMAT's valuation: If we look at another gorilla of it's industry, INTC, we can see that the market is giving one dominating company the market cap of the entire revenues for the sector and then some. IC revs for 98 should come in at about 130B. Currently, INTC sports a cap of 150B. Should the market apply the same rule to AMAT(who by the way, is gaining market share while INTC is losing some of theirs), we arrive at a market cap of about 45B for the equipment sector in 2000/2001, assuming the projections are even remotely correct. This would give AMAT a price of about $110 a share sometime in 2000. Just some random thoughts.