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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fredman who wrote (31398)	11/3/1998 9:13:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Are the ''early warning signs'' of a Japanese turnaround the reason... ...for our move here of late ? If it is - ''the demand-stupid;'' - without question Japan will lead Asian recovery. Stronger Asian demand eliminates the supply gut of Crude Oil and prices rise. When prices rise, dayrates & Rig utilization rise etc. - we all know the drill... Bottomline: You HAVE to be playing the Fed/International Rate Cuts & stimulation program - to fight it, or not to ride it; is definitely to miss it... And; it IS looking BIG. The time to short - came & went; will another window appear - perhaps; but you gotta be on this one. Staying nimble, taking some profits on the way up and being prepared to perhaps take ALL of the chips off the table if things get tooo heady here, is the key. But, to not be part of this ??? Does anyone really think that longterm one is going to NOT make big $ owning RON RIG FGII WFT here ? The upside still literally dwarfs the downside. With OPEC's meeting looming close and an International round of Rate cuts - the MO-mo train is not looking like its running out of steam any time soon. We have allready seen some signs in the Tech World that Asian demand is rising; now TSC has once again helped us ''beat the crowd to the party''... Barring a removal from Office of Clinton; other than the normal profit taking - I'm not so sure that this train is going to stop. Pause, yes; but stop or ''major'' retracement - I no longer think so. The overall market no longer has many cheap sectors, and very few with the upside volatility and Earnings Capacity of the Oilpatch. We are still 50% from the median prices (NOT 52 week highs) on many stocks. Some have perhaps outrun themselves a bit. 2 of my fav's DRQ & CDIS are at pretty lofty PE's for this enviroment, but if you want to own them cheap - it's no longer possible. Stocks like WFT & RON - though having moved substantially; still have 50% no-brainer upsides... How attractive in this market do they look as compared to Coke, GE or Wal Mart ? The laggards are super buys; and are THE conservative-little downside risk play; TCMS OMNI HLX PKD look awfully good with virtually NO downside... While I don't think we can sustain 3-4-5% gains on what seems like a 3 out of 4 day basis; we do have lots of room to run and the signs of Asian and world demand recovery are strongly apparent. Worldwide Interest Rate Cuts in this mornings news; can't be fought. Sure there will be some profit taking, some retracement; but if OPEC has good news, or the Saudi's have a surprise for the ''traders'' - lookout ! Time to accumulate the laggards #1, buy on any dips #2, and get the ''stars of tomorrow while they're cheap today'' - because they ''aint'' gonna be that way for long... ****************************************************************************** If you are like everyone else; don't have time to read WSJ, IBD, FT daily, let alone Forbes and the monthlys; read theStreet.Com - it's been on a roll lately - great stuff; there is no quicker way to have the pulse of the market or the worlds economic news imho. - a no brainer.... gotta plug 'em if I'm gonna ''paste'' their stuff & they deserve it. PS - love or hate Cramer; he's just 10% of the TSC; personally he's an absolute MUST read imho. Great stuff from Cramer of late... if you aren't a subscriber - you need to be. thestreet.com Comments from James Cramer: **************************************************************************** <<...''So drillers, banks and brokers and Japan are where the action is. Suits me fine. '' >> **************************************************************************** <<..''Japan is turning. It is happening for a couple of incredible reasons. First, Prime Minister Obuchi came in with incredible low expectations. Everyone thought he would be able to do nothing. But, to use Wall Street terminology, this guy is surprising to the upside. That's huge. Second, after years of seeing good quarters from Japanese companies even though we all knew they were getting their heads handed to them, they are now reporting the kind of stink-o quarters that we should have seen for some time. I am not saying that they were lying about their financials, but I do think that they are now owning up to their difficulties, which is stage one of the psychology of bottoms. Third, they are reliquifying. They are selling many, many things in America, from stubs of banks to whole divisions. They are retrenching furiously. They have probably sold billions of dollars in U.S. bonds in the last three months. They are repatriating to invest in their own market, which is good news. Fourth, their banking plan, which everybody scoffed at initially, is as vicious and as credible as ours was when we decided to get tough. Banks are closing left and right. Banks are merging. It is unprecedented. Other than the FT, though, nobody gets it, which is why I urge you to start reading their coverage.'' >> **************************************************************************** *...great article on fundamental ''value'' investing: Good screening criteria and classic Ben Graham... thestreet.com