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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Perry who wrote (3743)	11/3/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Opinions and the "Main Street" shareholder ……………………… Over the last day, I expressed a lot of guessing and rendered a lot of opinions but then what are these forums for? Hopefully, the opinions were based in some kind of industry research footing. I think that quite a few of them were. Bear in mind that when one gets a "Frost and Sullivan" or a "Gartner" report you are primarily getting the opinions of a few specialized well-read nerdy people. If I am correct, or nearly so, then even to my surprise Ampex as AXC is not about a turnaround or about a value play situation. If it were described as a momentum play, or a growth stock, then it would have to be a description in reverse for now. This seems to be how the market is valuing the common shares. In my opinion, what AXC is about is a gentleman's speculation. What I mean by this is that the AXC common exhibits more of the uncertainties of a new venture startup hence the out of whack multiples. It is the uncertainty of the future, which is driving down the share price ratios. Since management, rightly so, is tight-lipped about their prospects, the typical "Main Street" investor has not a clue as to what is going on. So, out of impatience, continued losses and the discomfort of seeing other positions taking off, these investors are steadily deserting their positions in AXC common. This is unfortunate, but nothing more can be said. Instead, much better funded, or better-informed investors (there is probably a trade-off at work here) are taking the opposing positions and quietly accumulating for what may be a surprise eventuality. Of course, these players may have 20 other position just like this one in their portfolio. In my opinion, AXC has a lot of appeal to the gambler in each of us and to the visionary who can look into the future and see the possibility of a different scenario. At worst case, AXC will languish and possibly, with a core product turnaround reach as high as 3 ½ on strong DST and DataDock 7000 sales. If market sentiment were also buoyant at the same time, one could possibly see 5.00 per share. Even if strong sales did not materialize, then the existing technology and patent portfolio would make a good buyout for some large player in a hurry to participate in digital video. Here a guess in the 2.00 to 4.00 range. However, if one is "feeling lucky" and you like the excitement of the "roll" then stick around for price action possibly like what we call an "Internet Stock" today. Ed Perry