To: Charliss who wrote (24326 ) 11/3/1998 2:52:00 PM From: John Mansfield Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
Dr Frautschi - update on earlier reports - some good background reading for understanding TAVA Y2k business - 'Embedded Systems and the Year 2000 Problem (The OTHER Year 2000 Problem) tmn.com Draft of 3 November 1998 Copyright 1998 Mark A. Frautschi, Ph.D. Shakespeare and Tao Consulting tmn.com (410) 453-9250 frautsch@tmn.com Abstract: There is another Year-2000 risk. It is distinct from the more widely reported risks concerning impending failures of computers and software that represent dates using two digits for the year. This risk involves embedded processors and logic arrays, dedicated electronic control and monitoring logic incorporated into larger systems. These are essential to the operation of a vast portfolio of infrastructures, from medical equipment, to buildings (phone, security, heating, plumbing and lighting), to transportation, to financial networks, to just-in-time delivery systems, and so on. According to a recent study, the firmware (permanently loaded instructions) that enables these systems to run is date sensitive and not Year-2000-compliant in less than 1 percent of the fifty billion integrated circuits (chips) used in embedded systems installed worldwide by the end of the century. This small fraction will fail, causing the systems they control to begin failing around 1 January 2000 and for the first few years of the new century. These failures are coupled with significant factors mitigating their diagnosis and repair. These include the absence of reliable documentation of Year-2000-compliance of date sensitive systems produced over the past few decades. This poses formidable assessment issues. A pessimistic, illustrative scenario is presented. It describes disruption of essential infrastructure from electric power, to food and fuel distribution, to communications, to financial networks. Insufficient resources and time are available to prevent and test against failures in critical infrastructures. It is time to shift emphasis from repair to triage and contingency planning and to make appropriate preparations for risk management against massive loss of infrastructure. ...tmn.com